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Listings: 1997-Present

Listings: 1996 & Earlier

Abstracts: 1997-Present

Abstracts: 1996 & Earlier


 

 

 

14.02

Current Offshore Oil Spill Statistics

Proceedings of the 11th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2014)

Banff, Alberta, Canada, 28-30 July 2014

Authors: Frank Bercha (Bercha Group), Caryn Smith (United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management [BOEM]),

and Heather Crowley (BOEM)

Probabilistic oil-spill occurrence estimates are used by the United States Department of the Interior (USDOI), Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to support the development of National Environmental Policy Act assessments for hypothetical exploration and development scenarios in the U.S. Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Due to the limited offshore oil development in this region, it was not feasible to base these oil-spill occurrence estimates on empirical data from that region alone. Rather, statistically significant non-Arctic empirical data on oil spills of 50 bbl or more from the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) including the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Pacific (PAC) OCS, together with their variance, are used as a starting point, to be adjusted using fault and event tree methodologies to emulate Arctic conditions. This paper, however, addresses the base statistical data for U.S. GOM and PAC OCS oil spills as well as world wide data on well control incidents including oil and gas blowouts. The first database contains information on crude, condensate and refined petroleum oil spills reported to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), primarily from the GOM. As reports on this database up to 2008 were published earlier by the authors, this paper focuses on more recent updates to 2012, giving oil spill statistics for subsea oil pipelines, platforms, and wells in the U.S. OCS. A preliminary assessment of loss of well control incidents is also reported based on both BSEE and SINTEF data. The paper discusses the results of the U.S. statistical updates and the world wide well control preliminary statistics developed under current contracts of the first author’s company with BOEM. Conclusions summarizing the status and applicability of the statistics presented are given, and avenues for future work are identified.             TOP=

12.04

Arctic Offshore Structure EER Risk Based Standards and Methods of Risk Analysis

Proceedings of the 10th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2012)

Banff, Alberta, Canada, 17-20 September 2012

Authors: James P. Poplin (ExxonMobil Development Company) and Frank Bercha (Bercha Group)

The Canadian Offshore Structure Performance Based EER Standards 2006 and International Standard ISO 19906 Arctic Offshore Structures 2010 were developed to help ensure that offshore structures deployed where arctic conditions prevail, provide the appropriate level of reliability with respect to personnel safety, environmental protection and asset value. Both standards address escape, evacuation and rescue (EER).  The Canadian standard provides reliability targets for key elements and the totality of the EER process whereas the ISO standard addresses design, construction, transportation, installation and decommissioning phases of the structure.

     EER is a system that mitigates the effects of major accident hazards to personnel. A suite of risk analyses methodologies are typically employed to assess the EER philosophy and to confirm the provisions of the overall EER system design.  The objectives of such analyses are to assess the design adequacy (from an EER perspective) at key stages in the design, to assess the impact of changes to the design that are proposed and to demonstrate that risks to personnel in the overall design are as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). Following a general description of the Canadian and ISO standard’s EER risk and reliability based provisions, this paper provides an overview of some of the applicable risk methodologies including the EER analysis.                TOP=

12.03

Alaska OCS Oil Spill Occurrence Probabilities

Proceedings of the 10th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2012)

Banff, Alberta, Canada, 17-20 September 2012

Authors: Frank Bercha (Bercha Group), Richard Prentki (United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management [BOEM]) - Retired,

and Caryn Smith (United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management [BOEM])

Probabilistic estimates of oil spill occurrences are used in the development of environmental assessments for hypothetical developments in the US Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Due to the limited offshore oil development in this region, it was not possible to base these oil spill probability estimates on empirical data from that region. Rather, statistically significant non-Arctic empirical data from the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and world-wide sources, together with their variance, were used as a starting point. Next, both the historical non-Arctic frequency distributions and spill causal distributions were modified to reflect specific effects of the Arctic setting, and the resultant fault tree model was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation to adequately characterize uncertainties treated as probability distribution inputs to the fault tree. A series of studies, associated with successive lease sale scenarios between 2000 and 2006, was carried out directed at developing and applying the fault tree methodology. In addition, a study directed solely at updating the GOM data was carried out. The series of studies consisted of five Beaufort Sea and/or Chukchi Sea application studies and the GOM data update studies. This report summarizes the methodology and gives results of its application to the estimation of oil spill probabilities and their characteristics for the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas region based on the most recent studies and statistics through 2006 Ongoing studies will incorporate OCS data through 2010 and will capture the loss of well control frequencies including the Macondo well.                TOP=

12.02

Arctic EER Challenges and Advances

Proceedings of the 10th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2012)

Banff, Alberta, Canada, 17-20 September 2012

Author: Frank Bercha (Bercha Group)

Plenary presentation given at ICETECH 2012.                TOP=

12.01

ARKTOS New Developments

Proceedings of the 10th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2012)

Banff, Alberta, Canada, 17-20 September 2012

Authors: Bruce Seligman (ARKTOS Developments Ltd.) and Frank Bercha (Bercha Group)

The ARKTOS vehicle is an amphibious craft system capable of operation in a wide range of Arctic ice conditions and seastates. It is approved as an evacuation system by various regulators, including the US Coast Guard (USCG), and is currently operational in several marine cold regions as an EER and utility system. Following is a description of recent additional operational and ergonomical tests of the 52 Person USCG Approved ARKTOS Evacuation Craft. This description is followed by a summary of some of the ongoing developments for the system in oil spill control, ice management, and its extension to new applications in forestry and pipeline construction in swampy locations. As part of a reliability investigation of the ARKTOS EER capability, a series of non-Arctic calm condition manoeuvrability and performance drills were carried out to focus on both global performance and operator ergonomic factors. These tests were carried out at a temperate location in the Fraser River Delta and Robert’s Bank, near Vancouver, B.C. Operation of the Craft in deep water with jets only, shallow water using both tracks and jets, and on tidal flats above water using tracks only. The planned utilization of the Craft by ENI Petroleum, Inc. in the Beaufort Sea is described. Next, descriptions of some other current new developments for oil spill cleanup, river and sea ice management, and disaster response applications are given. Conclusions and recommendations for further developments and reliability improvements are given.                TOP=

11.01

ISO 19906 – Implications for Arctic Offshore Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue

21st International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC 2011)

Montreal, Quebec, Canada, 10-14 July 2011
Authors: J. Poplin, F. Bercha, C. Brummelkamp, D. Dickins, S. Knight,
M. Mansurov, M. Moorland, D. Onshuus, V. Santos-Pedro, A. Simőes Ré, and G. Timco

 
International Standard ISO 19906 Arctic Offshore Structures scheduled to be published in late-2010 was developed to help ensure that offshore structures deployed where arctic conditions prevail, provide an appropriate level of reliability with respect to personnel safety, environmental protection and asset value to the owner, to Industry and society. The Standard addresses various types of offshore structures and is intended to provide the designer a choice of structural configurations, materials and techniques without hindering innovation when sound engineering judgment is applied. One topic addressed in the Standard is arctic escape, evacuation and rescue (EER) in the design, construction, transportation, installation and decommissioning phases of the structure as EER is critical to emergency response in arctic conditions (and elsewhere) and is not covered in any other existing ISO Standards.
     Arctic EER is receiving more attention with the current resurgence of interest in Arctic offshore hydrocarbon reserves, marine tourism and northern marine transportation routes. The performance based EER provisions in the Standard are intended to promote the successful escape from the incident, subsequent evacuation from the installation, and the ultimate rescue of installation personnel. The Standard specifies design requirements and also provides background to and guidance on the use of the document. Except where the offshore arctic structure design strategy imposes specific requirements, ISO 19906 does not contain operational, maintenance, or service-life inspection or repair requirements. It does however address issues such as topsides winterization and escape, evacuation and rescue that go beyond what is strictly required for the design, construction, transportation, and installation and decommissioning of the structure. These issues are critical for arctic offshore structures and are not addressed in other ISO Standards.
     This paper describes the ISO 19906 Arctic Offshore Structures Standard that will supersede most existing Arctic EER guidelines and standards worldwide.        
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10.03

Arctic and Northern Offshore Oil Spill Probabilities

Proceedings of the 9th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2010)

Anchorage, Alaska, USA, 20-23 September 2010

Authors: Frank Bercha (Bercha Group)

Current catastrophic consequences of the Gulf of Mexico blowout have refocused interest on the probabilities of such events in both temperate and northern regions. This paper reviews some of the early studies on oil spill probabilities with emphasis on oil blowouts, and details more recent studies carried out specifically for the Alaskan OCS. Due to the embryonic state of offshore oil development in arctic regions, which has been the case since 1976 to the present, it is not possible to base oil spill probability estimates on empirical data. The early studies relied on a detailed fault tree analysis dealing with the operations as systems without history. More recent studies in northern but not arctic operations use world wide data as a starting point. In the recent and current Alaskan OCS studies, statistically significant non-Arctic empirical data from the US Gulf of Mexico and world-wide sources, together with their variance, were used as a starting point. Next, both the historical non-Arctic frequency distributions and spill causal distributions were modified to reflect specific effects of the Arctic setting, and the resultant fault tree model was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation to adequately characterize uncertainties treated as probability distribution inputs to the fault tree.          TOP=

10.02

Arctic Offshore Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue Standards and Guidelines

Proceedings of the 9th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2010)

Anchorage, Alaska, USA, 20-23 September 2010

Authors: James P. Poplin (ExxonMobil Development Company) and Frank Bercha (Bercha Group)

Arctic Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue (EER) is receiving more attention with the current resurgence of interest in Arctic offshore hydrocarbon reserves, marine tourism and shortening marine transportation routes. Since 2000, Transport Canada supported the Arctic EER research project for which the second author’s company has been the lead contractor. The research conducted under this program resulted in the development of Canadian performance-based standards for offshore petroleum installations and a computer model capable of assessing the reliability and performance of EER processes.
     The ISO, under Working Group 8, developed a Final Draft International Standard addressing Arctic Offshore Structures which is expected to be published in late-2010. The Standard addresses design requirements and assessments for Arctic offshore structures used by the petroleum and natural gas industries worldwide to help ensure that appropriate reliability levels are achieved for manned and unmanned offshore structures, regardless of the type of structure. The EER provisions of the Standard are intended to promote the successful escape from the incident, subsequent evacuation from the installation (emergency or precautionary evacuation), and the ultimate rescue of installation personnel. The EER provisions are performance-based. The Standard specifies design requirements and also provides background to and guidance on the use of the document.            
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10.01

Arctic EER Today

Proceedings of the 9th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2010)

Anchorage, Alaska, USA, 20-23 September 2010

Authors: Frank Bercha (Bercha Group)

Technologies, engineering and analysis, and regulatory provisions relating to arctic Escape Evacuation and Rescue (EER) today and in development are reviewed. Current national and international regulatory performance based regime has necessitated the development of tools for the evaluation and setting of performance based goals such as availability and reliability requirements, mirrored in current Transport Canada and ISO standards. To facilitate setting of reliability targets in the Canadian standards, a multifaceted research and development program was initiated in parallel with its regulatory developments. Full scale manned and model tests, engineering and computer simulation, and world wide consultations and studies on human performance in life threatening conditions, comprise this R&D programme. Concurrently, industry and the private sector have addressed the frontier and arctic EER needs through analyses, development of novel systems, and participation in framing performance based standards. Use of conventional EER systems and technologies was found to have limited applicability in ice populated waters, requiring the development of systems and procedures suited to the environmental, operational, and logistical requirements of arctic offshore regions. The paper summarizes available and emerging regulatory, modeling and research, and technological developments in arctic EER and gives recommendations on a number of promising directions.        TOP=

28.05

ARKTOS Full-Scale Evacuation Tests

Proceedings of the International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2008)

Banff, Canada, 20-23 July 2008

Authors: Bruce Seligman (ARKTOS Developments Ltd.), Frank Bercha (Bercha Group), and Peter Hatfield (ARKTOS Developments Ltd.)

The Arktos vehicle is an amphibious craft system capable of operation in a wide range of Arctic ice conditions and seastates. It is approved as an evacuation system by various regulators, such as the US Coast Guard, and is currently operational in several marine cold regions as an EER system. As part of a reliability investigation of the ARKTOS EER capability, a series of non-Arctic calm condition fully-manned drills was carried out to focus on ergonomic factors. These drills were carried out at a temperate location in the Fraser River Delta, near Vancouver, B.C. A full complement of evacuees was observed and documented throughout a range of evacuation drills, including escape, boarding, securing, and transport to a location outside of a hypothetical hazard zone. Video, time, and expert observer records were made and analyzed subsequently. Two sets of drills were carried out; namely, full-scale evacuation drills and calm open water operation drills. Both sets of drills focused on the ergonomic interfaces of the subjects and the vehicle. This paper describes the observations, presents the statistical results from the data collected, and compares observed results with predicted results of a probabilistic EER simulation computer model. Conclusions and recommendations for reliability improvements are given.        TOP=

28.04

State of Art of Arctic EER

Proceedings of the International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2008)

Banff, Canada, 20-23 July 2008

Authors: Frank Bercha (Bercha Group)

This paper describes developments in technologies, engineering and analysis, and regulatory provisions relating to arctic Escape Evacuation and Rescue (EER). The developing national and international regulatory performance based regime has necessitated the development of tools for the evaluation and setting of performance based goals such as availability and reliability requirements, mirrored in current draft Transport Canada and ISO standards. To facilitate the reliability assessment and consequent setting of reliability targets in the Canadian standards, a multifaceted research and development program was initiated in parallel with its regulatory developments. Full scale manned and model tests, engineering and computer simulation, and world wide consultations and studies on human performance in life threatening conditions, comprise this R&D program. Use of conventional EER systems and technologies has limited applicability in ice populated waters, requiring the development of systems and procedures suited to the environmental, operational, and logistical requirements of arctic offshore regions. The paper summarizes available and emerging regulatory, modeling and research, and technological developments in arctic EER and gives recommendations on a number of promising directions.        TOP=

28.03

Reliability of Arctic Offshore Structures

Proceedings of the International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2008)

Banff, Canada, 20-23 July 2008

Authors: Frank Bercha (Bercha Group), and Ove T. Gudmestad (University of Stavanger)

Reliability of a system is the probability that it will function as intended for the required period of time. The opposite of reliability is failure probability per unit time or over time, such as a life cycle. Following a review of existing reliability codes and approaches, comprehensive approaches to assess the reliability of offshore structures are described, including probabilistic failure analysis fault tree and Monte Carlo simulation.        TOP=

28.02

Transport Canada EER Research and Development Program

Proceedings of the International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2008)

Banff, Canada, 20-23 July 2008

Authors: Ernst Radloff (Transport Canada), Frank Bercha (Bercha Group), and Fred Leafloor (Safety First Industrial Services)

The paper describes a multiyear offshore installation Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue (EER) research and development program carried out from 2000 to 2007. The general objective of the work was to develop performance-based design standards and guidelines for optimal EER systems for installations in Canadian waters. Phase 1 involved developing a risk and performance evaluation tool, reviewing existing regulations, implementing recent Ocean Ranger recommendations, and conducting various applied research programs including those on human performance in EER. Phase 2 work focused on developing preliminary performance-based standards that can be used by offshore regulators for the selection of evacuation systems. Phase 3 involved further refinement of the standards based on model and full-scale testing and computer simulation. While standards ultimately developed as a result of this research are intended to be applied nationally in Canada, they may also be proposed as international standards.        TOP=

28.01

Prediction of Oil Spill Probabilities in the Alaskan Beaufort and Chukchi Seas OCS

Proceedings of the International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2008)

Banff, Canada, 20-23 July 2008

Authors: Frank Bercha (Bercha Group), Richard Prentki, (US DOI, Minerals Management Service), and Caryn Smith (US DOI, Minerals Management Service)

Probabilistic estimates of oil spill occurrences are used in the development of environment impact assessments for possible future developments in the US Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Due to the embryonic state of offshore oil development in this region, it was not possible to base these oil spill probability estimates on empirical data. Rather, statistically significant non-Arctic empirical data from the US Gulf of Mexico and world-wide sources, together with their variance, were used as a starting point. Next, both the historical non-Arctic frequency distributions and spill causal distributions were modified to reflect specific effects of the Arctic setting, and the resultant fault tree model was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation to adequately characterize uncertainties treated as probability distribution inputs to the fault tree. This paper summarizes the methodology and gives results of its application to the estimation of oil spill probabilities and their characteristics for the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas region for typical future offshore development scenarios.        TOP=

27.03

Recent Developments in Arctic Escape, Evacuation and Rescue

An Overview of Recent and Emerging Advancements in Arctic Offshore Escape, Evacuation and Rescue

Published in Sea Technology magazine (Compass Publications Inc.)

pp. 31-36, April 2007

Author: Frank G. Bercha, Bercha Group

The major wave of activity in the US and Canadian Arctic in the late 1970s through the early 1990s showed some rudimentary provisions for Arctic escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER), but by no means demonstrated a comprehensive Arctic EER capability. No serious accidents occurred on the marine installations in spite of these minimal EER provisions thanks to a lack of installation emergencies requiring personnel abandonment. Currently, with the resurgence of activity in the Arctic offshore, various developments in technological, engineering and analytical and regulatory sectors, have occurred or are underway with promising potential for Arctic EER in the near future.      TOP=

27.02

Canadian Arctic Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue Standards

Proceedings of the 17th International Offshore (Ocean) & Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE 2007)

Lisbon, Portugal,  1-6 July 2007

Authors: Frank G. Bercha, Bercha Group / Ernst Radloff, Transport Canada

Performance-based arctic escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) standards have been developed by Transport Canada’s Transportation Development Centre. Performance-based standards set expected activity, task, and process achievement levels and goals, rather than prescribing equipment quantities, types, dimensions, and other specifications. The performance based standards were a result of an integrated research and development program and the establishment of a standards development task force consisting of experts in applicable disciplines. This paper describes the arctic EER and ISO standards, the development program, and outlines the research and development projects on which the standards have been based.     TOP=

27.01

Recent Developments in Arctic EER

Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC-07)

Dalian, China, 26-30 June 2007

Author: Frank G. Bercha

Although adequate escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) reliability is essential for personnel safety on any manned vessel or installation, whether in open or ice covered waters, the attention dedicated to EER for Arctic conditions has been limited prior to this millennium. Fortunately, no serious accidents occurred on marine installations in the arctic seas during the previous wave of activity from 1975 to 1990 in spite minimal EER provisions—but this is thanks to lack of installation emergencies requiring personnel abandonment rather than arctic EER system reliability. Now, in consonance with the current resurgence of activity in the arctic offshore, important developments in the technologies, engineering and analysis, and regulatory provisions relating to arctic EER have taken place, and are ongoing with considerable positive potential. The regulatory performance based regime has necessitated the development of tools for the evaluation and setting of performance based goals such as availability and reliability requirements. Initiated in 2000 by Canada’s Transport Development Centre, the present author’s organization and the EER Task Force, which it facilitates, have drafted performance based standards (PBS) for both open and ice covered water EER, and published them as a TP document in 2006. Somewhat later, but in parallel, the ISO has commenced drafting more general Arctic EER (TP8b) and Arctic system reliability (TP2a) standards which are currently at the international committee draft stage and should become published in the next few years. To facilitate the reliability assessment and consequent setting of reliability targets in the Canadian PBS, a multifaceted research and development program was initiated by TDC in parallel with its regulatory developments. Full scale manned and model tests, engineering and computer simulation, and world wide consultations and studies on human performance in life threatening conditions, comprise this R&D programme. The technological developments partly resulting from R&D and partly initiated independently and ongoing in parallel, include conceptual, engineering, and full scale prototype construction, testing, type approval, and implementation of novel evacuation and survival systems and procedures. Some of the systems under development or certification include Seascape, Amplemann, IRT, and a number of more generic procedures and approaches to Arctic EER. This paper reviews these recent developments in the areas of technology, research and analysis, and regulation, and highlights the most promising developments and significant remaining deficiencies, and gives recommendations for future work.     TOP=

26.05

Arctic Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue - Past, Present, and Future

Presented at the International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2006)

Banff, Canada, 16-19 July 2006

Author: Frank G. Bercha

Escape, evacuation, and rescue plans, systems, and procedures form an integral part of the emergency response capability of any manned installation or vessel. Whether operating in open or ice covered waters, a reliable set of processes for abandoning the installation and moving, possibly following an interim relatively safe residence (e.g., in a safety craft), to a safe haven such as an icebreaker, port, or other vessel or installation, is necessary to provide adequate safety for personnel and in many cases also to satisfy regulations. Although there is no distinction in the level of safety that should be afforded in open or ice covered waters, the development of EER for the latter has fallen far behind in technology, regulation, and analysis even though active operations in ice have been ongoing now for many decades. In this paper, a review of past, current, and developing technologies, analyses, and regulations and standards is given. Past practices dating back to the early days in the Beaufort Sea are quite primitive and fortunately were never tested in a major catastrophe. Considerable attention is being given to use of current developments, including dedicated Arctic systems such as ARKTOS, semi-dedicated systems such as Seascape, and numerous conceptual designs. Supporting multi-disciplinary research including full scale tests, model tests, and computer simulation supports this new technology development. In addition, current standards have been developed by Transport Canada for EER in ice, and ISO WG8 is working on a more general standard for the same purpose. The future is promising: ice resistant lifeboats or TEMPSC’s (IRT), various launching devices to deposit crafts safely in or on the ice, and novel methods of evacuation and rescue, discussed in the paper, are under consideration. Following a review of past, current, and future developments in technological, analytical and research and regulatory areas, the paper identifies the major outstanding problems and makes recommendations for the most promising solutions.     TOP=

26.04

Probabilistic Prediction of Oil Spill Occurrence Probabilities in the Alaskan OCS

Presented at the International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2006)

Banff, Canada, 16-19 July 2006

Authors: Frank G. Bercha, Bercha Group / Richard Prentki US DOI, MMS/ Caryn Smith, US DOI, MMS / Milan Cerovsek, Bercha Group

Probabilistic estimates of oil spill occurrences are required for the development of environment impact assessments for possible future developments in the US Beaufort Sea. Due to the embryonic state of offshore oil development in this region, it was not possible to base these oil spill probability estimates on empirical data. Rather, statistically significant non-Arctic empirical data, together with their variance, was used as a starting point. Next, both the frequency distributions and spill causal distributions were modified to reflect specific effects of the Arctic setting and the resultant fault tree model was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation to adequately characterize the combinations of probability distribution inputs to the fault tree. This paper summarizes the methodology and gives results of its application to the prediction of oil spill probabilities and their characteristics for the Beaufort Sea region for typical future offshore development scenarios.    TOP=

26.03

Development of Canadian Arctic and Open Water EER Standards

Presented at the International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2006)

Banff, Canada, 16-19 July 2006

Authors: Frank G. Bercha, Bercha Group / Ernst Radloff, Transport Canada

In 2000, Transport Canada’s Transportation Development Centre (TDC) initiated an escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) program to develop performance-based standards for offshore installations in Canadian waters. Performance-based standards (PBS) set expected activity, task, and process achievement levels and goals, rather than prescribing equipment quantities, types, dimensions, and other specifications. This paper describes the development of the standards, and the associated research projects needed to fill relevant data gaps.     TOP=

26.02

Reliability of Arctic Offshore Installations

Presented at the International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2006)

Banff, Canada, 16-19 July 2006

Authors: Frank G. Bercha, Bercha Group / Ove T. Gudmestad, Stavanger University, Statoil and Norwegian University of Technology /

Don Nevel / Ricardo Foschi, Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia /

Frank Sliggers, Shell International Exploration and Production B.V. / Nina Nikitina, VNIIG

In this paper, following an illustration of known failure modes of offshore installations with catastrophic consequences, the concept of integrated reliability is presented. Integrated reliability is the probability that a structure will continue to function in spite of all possible threats of catastrophic failure under all operational and environmental conditions for a designated period of time. Next, a protocol for defining integrated reliability is introduced, risk thresholds in the form of safety classes and consequence categories are presented, and quantitative reliability targets based on the protocol introduced are given. Methods of practical design approaches are also summarized. Finally, conclusions and recommendations for further work are presented.            TOP=

26.01

Recent Developments in Arctic EER

Presented at the 16th International Offshore & Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE 2006)

San Francisco, USA, 28 May - 2 June 2006

Author: Frank G. Bercha

This paper summarizes recent developments in Arctic installation escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) including regulations and standards, research and development, and developing technologies. The status of Arctic EER international (ISO) and Canadian national standards is described. Both sets of standards are performance based, but vary in their approach. Next, research and development, including ongoing full-scale and model tests, analysis, and computer modeling are reviewed. Finally, current technological developments are discussed. Although many different open water technologies have been adapted to some degree for Arctic use, there does not appear to be a fully operational evacuation system adequate for both open water and ice conditions. Conclusions from the work are summarized.         TOP=

25.03

Reliability (and Risk) of Offshore (Marine) Structures for Arctic Conditions

Presented at the 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR)

Rome, Italy, 19-23 June 2005

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, Calgary, Canada; Ove T. Gudmestad / Stavanger University, Statoil and Norwegian University of Technology and Science, Norway; Ricardo O. Foschi / Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; Don Nevel / USA; Nina Nikitina / VNIIG, St. Petersburg, Russia; Frank Sliggers / Shell International Exploration & Production, BV Rijswijk, the Netherlands

Offshore structures located in the Arctic are exposed to ice loads and cold temperatures. The ice loads are uncertain and a large spread in the estimates of design loads and pressures is often generated due to a combination of paucity of data and various different approaches by different experts.
      Furthermore, the environment is particularly vulnerable due to the lower recovery potential of the cold Arctic waters, the difficulties in collecting oil from a possible oil spill and the impediments to access in ice. Additionally, evacuation from an Arctic structure onto the ice or into open water leads is particularly difficult when the ice is fragmented.
      These considerations lead to the need for a discussion of the required reliability level in the performance of Arctic offshore structures and considerations as to how one can ensure that all appropriate aspects are included in the selection of the reliability level for structures producing hydrocarbons under Arctic conditions. This paper will discuss these aspects and comment on some of the considerations made during the preliminary development of the reliability section of ISO Standard (ISO 19906) for Arctic Offshore Structures for hydrocarbon production.    
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25.02

Risk Based Compliance Strategies for Introducing Risk and Performance Standards

Invited Lecture, Canadian Gas Association (CGA) National Operations Conference

Operating Beyond Compliance, Breakout Session #1, Calgary, Canada, 12 April 2005

Author: Frank G. Bercha

Many organizations are reviewing how they can operate beyond the requirements of regulatory compliance. Dr. Bercha addressed the benefits and challenges of implementing risk -based decision making processes to support organizational objectives. Dr. Bercha's focus in this presentation was on strategies for introducing risk assessment models and the value added benefits in terms of safety, costs, and compliance.   TOP=

25.01

Improvements in the Fault Tree Approach to Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators for the Beaufort Sea

Invited Lecture, 10th Information Transfer Session (ITS), Minerals Management Service (MMS)

Anchorage, Alaska, 11-13 March 2005

Author: Frank G. Bercha

Occurrence estimators for oil spills are values of probabilities of occurrences of oil spills of different volumes, locations, causes, and times within different development and production scenarios. Because adequate historical data for characterizing Arctic marine oil spills are not available, a network simulation technique called fault tree analysis was used. The fault trees were first constructed to emulate the spill occurrence probabilities for a location of known history, primarily the GOM, and then modified to include Arctic effects. In Phase 1 of the work occurrence estimators were evaluated with specific focus on the uncertainties introduced from the consideration of Arctic effects such as ice gouging and strudel scour, but excluded consideration of the inherent uncertainties of the statistics for the known locations. In Phase 2, currently underway, the improvement is that both the uncertainties in spill frequencies and volumes derived from the base data and those for the Arctic effects are integrated to provide probabilistic distributions of the spill indicators. In this presentation, following a discussion of the Phase 1 and 2 methodology, preliminary results of the spill indicators for a typical development scenario are presented, discussed, and preliminary conclusions are proposed.   TOP=

24.03

Assessment of the Reliability of Marine Installation Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue Systems and Procedures

Presented at the 14th International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE)

Toulon, France, 23-28 May 2004

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, Milan Cerovšek / Bercha Group, and Wesley Abel / W. Abel & Associates Limited

This paper describes analyses developed for the assessment of reliability and performance characteristics of different escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) components and their integrated performance as an EER system for different offshore installations and operating conditions. In the analyses presented herein, a computerized probabilistic EER simulator (PEERS) in its fourth version called the Risk and Performance Tool (RPT), uses an optimal combination of risk analysis and simulation. Essentially, the RPT simultaneously models the evolution of risks and times of performance for each of the activities, operations, and components, comprising an EER process under given operational, environmental, and accident conditions. In this paper, following a detailed description of the methodology utilized in the development of the RPT including the basis for input data, algorithms, and results, several typical offshore EER configurations for different conditions are analyzed and representative results are presented.

Entire Paper          TOP=

24.02

Reliability Assessment of Arctic EER Systems

Presented at the International Association for Hydraulic Engineering and Research (IAHR) 17th International Symposium on Ice

St. Petersburg, Russia, 21-25 June 2004

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, Milan Cerovšek / Bercha Group, and Wesley Abel / W. Abel & Associates Limited

Methodologies for the assessment of offshore installation EER systems have been developed utilizing various risk analytic network and simulation approaches. In this paper, the extension of a highly developed network and Monte Carlo simulation methodology to consider Arctic ice conditions impact on the emergency escape, evacuation, and rescue from floating and bottom founded installations is described. Essentially, open water EER simulation is augmented by the inclusion of cold weather and ice conditions together with estimates of their effects on human and mechanical performance of the EER system and its components. Following a description of the EER simulation principles and processes, selected Arctic and open water scenarios are described and representative results of reliabilities of different EER system configurations under a range of open water and Arctic conditions are presented. Conclusions and recommendations for further work are given. Entire Paper          TOP=

24.01

Arctic Offshore Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue

Presented at the International Association for Hydraulic Engineering and Research (IAHR) 17th International Symposium on Ice

St. Petersburg, Russia, 21-25 June 2004

Author: Frank G. Bercha

Results of a survey of the state-of-art Arctic escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) are presented. The review covers regulations and standards, current and emerging technologies, and analytical methods for the assessment of Arctic EER performance. The status of Arctic EER international (ISO) and Canadian national standards is described. Both sets of standards are performance based, but vary in their approach. Although many different open water technologies have been adapted to some degree for Arctic use, there does not appear to be a fully operational evacuation system adequate for both open water and ice conditions. Finally, methods for assessing the risk and reliability associated with emergency operations in Arctic ice laden waters are reviewed. These methods include algorithms for human and mechanical performance generating probabilities of likely EER outcomes under different environmental, operational, emergency, and personnel conditions. Conclusions from the work are summarized.  Entire Paper         TOP=

23.03

Human Performance in Arctic Offshore EER

Presented at the 13th International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE)

Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, May 25-30, 2003

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group , Chris J. Brooks / Survival Systems Limited, and Fred Leafloor / Safety First Ltd.

As part of a comprehensive escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) research program sponsored by the Transportation Development Centre of Transport Canada, the co-authors have investigated human performance under extreme conditions involving physical and mental stress. Part of the work focused on personnel performance in emergency evacuation situations causing extreme mental stress from offshore accident conditions, with Arctic environmental conditions also adding extreme physical stress. Because only limited and anecdotal data on human performance under such extreme conditions are available, and dedicated experiments would clearly be unacceptable, analysis of human performance under life-threatening conditions has been approached through the development of a computer model based on data from the literature giving unit error rates and times of performance, and on discussions with experts. The paper presents the background, methodology, computer program description, and gives examples of several different Arctic EER scenario analysed and selected comparative non-Arctic scenario results. Entire Paper         TOP=

23.02

Development of Canadian Performance-Based EER Standards

Presented at the 13th International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE)

Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, May 25-30, 2003

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, Ernst Radloff / Transport Canada, and Wesley Abel / W. Abel and Associates Limited

The Canadian government, through the federal Transportation Development Centre (TDC), in 1999 initiated a program to develop performance-based escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) standards for offshore installations in Canadian waters. Performance-based standards (PBS) set expected activity, task, and process achievement levels and goals, rather than prescribing equipment quantities, types, dimensions, and other specifications. This paper describes the standards, their development program and the associated research projects needed to fill relevant data gaps. Entire Paper         TOP=

23.01

Arctic Subsea Pipeline Oil Spill Probabilistic Analysis

Presented at the 13th International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference (ISOPE)

Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, May 25-30, 2003

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, Richard Prentki / US Department of Interior, Minerals Management Service, and
Milan Cerovšek / Bercha Group

This paper presents details of the methodology as well representative results of subsea pipeline spill occurrence analyses for realistic Alaska OCS oil and gas development scenarios ranging in life cycle duration up to the year 2038. Important general results included the distributions of spill size and occurrence frequency among pipeline locations, project life cycle spill histories, variability in spill indicators due to Arctic effect probability distributions, and comparative spill expectations for Arctic and similar non-Arctic pipeline projects. Conclusions and recommendations for further work are given. This paper is based on a project funded by the United States Minerals Management Service (MMS), Alaska OCS Region, with the two co-authors serving as Principal Investigator and MMS Project Manager, respectively.         TOP=

22.02

Emergency Evacuation of Installations in Arctic Ice Conditions

Presented at the 16th International Symposium on Ice

Dunedin, New Zealand, December 2-6, 2002

Author: Frank G. Bercha

Safe and reliable methods for the evacuation of installations or ships in polar marine ice conditions have not been developed. Following a review of the difficulties with polar evacuation, this paper describes general conceptual engineering solutions for reliable safety craft for polar evacuation and survival. A reliability analysis for the new systems for various ice conditions compares their performance to that of conventional methods under polar conditions. The reliability analysis confirms the need for new developments to assure safe emergency evacuation and survival for installations and ships in polar conditions. Detailed conclusions and recommendations for further work are given.        TOP=

22.01

Ice Pressure Ridge Impacts on Oil Spills in the Alaskan OCS

Presented at the 16th International Symposium on Ice

Dunedin, New Zealand, December 2-6, 2002

Authors: F.G. Bercha and M. Cerovšek

Subsea facilities in near shore regions of the Arctic seas are subject to impacts of ice pressure ridge scour. A recent evaluation of oil spill risks in the Alaskan OCS included development of an oil spill risk model capable of considering impacts of ice pressure ridges of different characteristics on subsea pipeline spill frequencies and severities. This paper focuses on the interactions of pressure ridges with subsea oil pipelines, and presents quantitative analytical evidence of the impacts of the principal ridge parameters of scour depth, flux, orientation, and interaction severity on pipeline failure and oil spill risk. Ridge scour depth is found to be the principal contributor to spill risk, while increased pipeline burial depth is one of the main spill risk mitigation measures. Conclusions and recommendations for risk mitigation and more detailed assessments are also presented.          TOP=

21.03

Risk and Risk Impact Assessment of Natural Gas Pipelines in Rural Highway Rights of Way

Presented at 2001 Annual Conference of the Transportation Association of Canada

Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, September 16-19, 2001

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, Milan Cerovšek / Bercha Group, and John Morrall / Canadian Highways Institute

The placement and location of hydrocarbon pipelines with respect to road geometries and cross sections can have an effect on the safety of the highway system and its users and adjacent residents, as well as operational and economic impacts on highway maintenance, construction, and modification activities. To assess these risks and impacts, the Transportation Association of Canada (TAC) commissioned Bercha Engineering Limited (Bercha) to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive study directed at generating a qualitative and quantitative understanding of the implications of locating pressurized natural gas pipelines in various locations within rural road right-of-ways. The study covered four primary representative road types together with their variations in ADDT, vehicle speed, and cross section, as well as three representative pipeline sizes and pressure categories for three different pipeline locations. The three pipeline locations consisted of one in the shoulder, one below the ditch, one just inside the edge of the right-of-way, and a fourth control location where the pipeline is away from the effects of the roadway. The method for systematically quantifying the risks to the public, considering the effects of the pipeline-roadway synergy, including effects on the pipeline failure rate as well as consequences of possible failure including ignition by vehicles, was developed and applied to each of the 108 generic cases. Both individual and collective risks and their variations for each of the different combinations were evaluated, and discussed. Similarly, economic impacts, including increases in the unit cost of common maintenance, construction, and reconstruction activities for the road operators were also identified. A series of conclusions and recommendations was generated and the study was reported in detail in a comprehensive final report together with supporting appendices. Although previous studies have been done on the use of common utility and transportation corridors, no comprehensive quantitative assessment of risks and economic impacts for representative combinations of road and pipeline characteristics has appeared previously, resulting in a significant volume of new observations and information available from the work reported herein.         TOP=

21.02

Arctic Offshore EER Systems

Presented at POAC'01

Ottawa, Canada, 2001

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, Milan Cerovšek / Bercha Group, Peter Gibbs / Survival Systems, Chris Brooks / Survival Systems, and Ernst Radloff / Transportation Development Centre

A reliable and effective escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) system and procedures will have an important impact on the safety of passengers and crew of any vessel which has an accident at sea. Although EER is well developed for open water vessels and installations, only a limited amount of attention has been directed at EER in ice covered waters. In this paper, following a review of the problems and available technology for both vessel and platform escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) under Arctic conditions, a description of possible technological and procedural solutions and the results of their reliability analysis through simulation are given. Solutions include novel launch and capsule adaptations to perform safely in a range of ice conditions as well as open water. Simulation of each component of the Arctic EER process as well as reliability evaluation of the process itself for combinations of different evacuation and rescue modes for different vessels and installations for a range of representative ice conditions was made. A description of full-scale empirical quantification of human performance parameters for the escape and evacuation module of the model is included. The expanded methodology and its empirical and theoretical foundations and results of the reliability analysis for different Arctic EER scenarios are new.          TOP=

21.02(b)

Emergency Evacuation from Ships and Structures and Survivability in Ice-Covered Waters: Current Status and Development

Presented at POAC'01

Ottawa, Canada, 2001

Authors: Jorg Cremers / Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (Ispra, Italy), Stanley Morris / Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Jgor Stepanov / Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (St. Petersburg, Russia) , and Frank Bercha / Bercha Group (Calgary, Canada)

In this paper the Escape, Evacuation and Rescue (EER) process for Arctic and polar water conditions is investigated. It can be shown by numerical simulation of this process that the rescue success rate decreases compared with the open Sea water case. This is manly because the evacuation process and to some extend also the rescue process are facing additional difficulties. The current regulations are analyzed with respect to Arctic conditions and suggestions for their implementation are given. The recommendations include a more suitable temperature range for working materials, a suitable lifeboat type and improvements for the lifeboat propulsion and equipment. The appliance of remote sensing techniques to optimize the search process is discussed.         TOP=

20.04

Special Problems in Pipeline Risk Assessment

Presented at International Pipeline Conference 2000

Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 1-5, 2000

Author: Frank G. Bercha

The paper presents case studies of pipeline risk assessments for special situations such as multiple pipelines in a common trench, pipelines adjacent to other hazardous facilities, and segments of special construction such as major water crossings. For such situations, the relatively straightforward risk assessment applicable to single pipelines in normal conditions is not applicable. Rather, one must generate a special analytical approach case by case to deal with those aspects of the risk assessment which vary from those of the normal situation. In this paper, following a brief introduction, a series of case studies for special problems in pipeline risk assessment based on real projects completed by the authors, is given, followed by conclusions and recommendations.         TOP=

20.03

Risk Assessment of Marine Evacuation Systems for Arctic Conditions

Presented at ICETECH -2000

St. Petersburg, Russia, September 2000

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, Archie C. Churcher / Cautley Enterprises, and Milan C. Cerovšek / Bercha Group

Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue (EER) for Arctic and northern marine conditions has recently been acknowledged as a high priority area for research and development. Following its rigorous definition, each of the components of the EER process is analyzed within an arctic context, and an integrated reliability assessment for the entire process is presented. Escape is substantially similar for arctic and temperate conditions, particularly when escape routes in the installation are mostly indoors. Rescue, which obviously is substantially dependent on environmental conditions, is, however, largely predicated on the nature and capability of the evacuation craft. And the evacuation craft drastically changes in its performance requirements when the installation is in solid or broken ice. In addition to being open-water, the safety craft must now be able to both move on top of the ice surface and to navigate in broken dynamic ice, at least to get clear of a potentially hazardous installation. In this paper, the risks associated with the application in emergency situations several evacuation system concepts potentially capable of all the above functions are defined and analyzed. The systems include ice resistant TEMPSC’s with several alternative lowering and launch subsystems, and several possible ice surface propulsion methods. Implications of each system variation on the rescue reliability are also assessed, together with integrated EER reliabilities for various typical Arctic marine conditions. The reliability assessments are carried out using the Bercha PEERS system, originally developed and validated for major Canadian offshore projects, and adapted for Arctic operations. Conclusions and recommendations on technological development priorities are presented.         TOP=

20.02

Influence of Northumberland Strait Crossing on Ice Mechanics

Presented at ICETECH -2000

St. Petersburg, Russia, September 2000

Author: Frank G. Bercha

Ice mechanics and ice engineering developments to facilitate the Northumberland Strait Crossing date back to the late 60’s, continue intermittently to the mid 80’s, and dramatically increase following 1987 with the identification of a need for a fixed link between the continent and Prince Edward Island. This paper summarizes the principal developments in ice mechanics over a period of 30 years, ultimately resulting in the Confederation Bridge as we know it now. Due to his partial involvement in the early work, and extensive involvement as a principal in the work from 1987 to 1995, the author is able to provide an in depth citation and commentary on the problems and solutions proposed, evaluated, and implemented. The early work, by Nothumberland Consultants, involved extensive developments in ice similitude modeling, ultimately resulting in an adequately scaled synthetic ice sheet model material. Later work consisted of Monte Carlo modeling of the ice climatology, improvement of finite element, discrete element, and granular media models for first year ridges and hummocks, and extensions of ice structure probabilistic interaction models. Today, the bridge is instrumented to monitor both ice conditions and its response to them, to provide opportunities to validate models and improve them.         TOP=

20.01

Escape, Evacuation and Rescue Modeling for Frontier Offshore Installations

Presented at the 2000 Offshore Technology Conference

Houston, Texas, USA, May 1-4, 2000

F.G. Bercha / Bercha Group, A.C. Churcher / Cautley Enterprises, and M. Cerovšek / Bercha Group

Assessment of the reliability of existing or proposed escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) systems is a vital part of safety management for existing or new offshore installations. This paper will review the fundamental concepts of EER, present new methodologies for both deterministic (expected and/or worst case) and simulation modeling, and present applications of these models to frontier offshore installations. Case studies for open water jacket type production platform operations will be based on those carried out for the Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) off the East Coast of Canada, and will include both deterministic and Monte Carlo simulation results. Two principal evacuation systems are used by SOEP and modeled here; namely davit launched TEMPSC and the Skyscape systems. Ways of probabilistically incorporating the interactive effects on the EER process of the initiating accident, seastate and weather, and availability of different rescue modes (standby or passing vessel, helicopter, land, or other platform) are presented and incorporated in the models. Although similar modeling approaches to installations in ice populated waters are used, special technologies relating to the evacuation processes to the ice surface or broken ice zone and ice capable safety craft had to be developed and introduced to complete the reliability evaluation for arctic offshore EER. Also, due to the integral dependence of the safety craft integrity and evacuee survival on ice conditions, a probabilistic procedure realistically yet efficiently simulating the ice conditions was developed and implemented in the model. Finally, for both open and ice covered water installations, integrated expected case and Monte Carlo simulation results are presented and discussed in terms of safety implications and developmental requirements. Conclusions and recommendations for future work are given.         TOP=

99.01

Escape, Evacuation and Rescue Modeling for the Arctic Offshore

Presented at RAO'99 Conference

St. Petersburg, Russia, September 1999

Authors: F. G. Bercha / Bercha Group, M. C. Cerovsek / Bercha Group, A. C. Churcher / Cautley Enterprises Inc., and D. S. Williams / Sable Offshore Energy Project

Model assessment of the reliability of proposed escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) systems, particularly for unprecedented conditions such as the Arctic, is a vital part of safety management planning for new and modified installation. Although several models exist for ice-free EER systems, none appear to have been developed or published for Arctic offshore installations. This paper describes both network and Monte Carlo probabilistic simulation models for open water and Arctic EER simulations for Skyscape (chute) and TEMPSC (lifeboat) systems in partial ice cover locations off the East Coast of Canada, and certain novel systems in dynamic but 10/10 ice cover in the Eastern Russian Arctic. The effect on EER success probabilities of principal ice cover properties including ice thickness, ice fraction, and dynamics is illustrated. Conclusions and recommendations for the development of optimal systems are presented.          TOP=

97.01

Implementation of Risk Based Land Use Guidelines in Santa Barbara County

Presented at MIACC PPR Conference, 1997

Authors: Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, and Doug Anthony / County of Santa Barbara

A variety of risk based land use guidelines have been developed in Canada including those from MIACC and AEUB, and elsewhere, including those of the HSE in the U.K., and the OASR in the Netherlands. Generally, such guidelines are based on controlling development to limit the amount of individual or collective risk to which members of the public would be involuntarily subjected in the vicinity of hazardous facilities. In this paper, the process of implementing such land use regulations based on public risk thresholds expressed as fatality and casualty risk spectra is described. The implementation process consisted of five principal steps; namely, selection of technically appropriate methodology (the risk spectrum), setting of quantitative thresholds, approval in principle by the Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors. Technical, managerial, and regulatory problems dealt with in the implementation process are described, including specific concerns and questions which had to be resolved. Conclusions on the applicability of the technical and administrative program are given together with recommendations for improvements and applications in other jurisdictions.          TOP=

97.02

Large Arctic Offshore Project Risk Analysis

Presented at RAO-97 Conference

St. Petersburg, Russia, September 1997

Frank G. Bercha / Bercha Group, and M. Cerovšek / Bercha Group

The increase in uncertainties in mega-projects due to an extended time frame and complex organizational structure is compounded when such projects are sited for Arctic offshore locations, where the stochasticity of the offshore environment is augmented by the action of marine ice and icebergs. Accordingly, appropriate treatment of the impact of uncertainties within such large projects becomes particularly important. Risk analysis methodologies, particularly probabilistic simulation methods, appear to be the best way to model such project risks and optimize the design, construction, and operation of the project by facilitating development of appropriate risk management programs.
       This paper describes the principal methodologies applicable to Arctic offshore risk analysis and presents details of new risk analytic approaches to new or existing technology adequacy assessment for Arctic service, and developments in total project risk integration including explicit quantification of applicable insurance provisions. Following a brief introduction on applicable risk analytic methodologies, the paper presents details of the methodologies and the new developments through a series of Arctic offshore project case studies. Principal quantitative risk analytic methodologies described include discrete model methods such as fault and event trees, and continuous modelling methods of simulation exemplified by Monte Carlo techniques. Applications of discrete methods are illustrated with analyses of MODU's within a Safety Case regime, Arctic ocean rescue systems, and turret mooring systems for floating production and storage facilities in iceberg populated waters. Simulation methods are illustrated by applications to offshore floating drilling operations in the Beaufort Sea and off the East Coast of Canada, where principal simulation problems included adequate characterization of the marine ice and iceberg management programs. The problems modelled are similar to those found in a range of conditions in the Russian Arctic, from marginal ice and icebergs in the southern Barents Sea, to multiyear ice in the Kara and Chukchi Seas. New techniques developed for the Terra Nova project for assessment of adequacy of specific technologies for site conditions and for the effective integration of all applicable types of risks are presented next. In the adequacy assessment, a novel method, involving a combination of decision analysis and simulation, for considering the technological, legal, commercial, and regulatory constraints for a specific semisubmersible vessel for service at Terra Nova, is presented. For the same project, Monte Carlo methods of effectively integrating risks to personnel, environment, operations, and economics, including explicit quantification insurance limits, cost variations, and the usual physical operational and environmental hazards, are detailed. Conclusions include a practical assessment of the techniques presented within the context of the current Russian Arctic offshore situation, and recommendations are made on the most promising areas for development of applications, theory, software, for support of current engineering and operational practices.
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Selected abstracts from 1996 and earlier are listed on another page.

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