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P202.2

Bow River Flood and Drought Mitigation Project

CLIENT: Confidential      DATE: 2019-2023

DESCRIPTION: Continuation of previous project support (P202.2). Options to a new dam were studied by Bercha. The principal option investigated and recommended is dredging the reservoir to increase capacity to the required volume.

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P203.1

Port Edward LNG HAZID, QRA, and Site Safety Optimization

CLIENT: Port Edward LNG      DATE: 2020-2021

DESCRIPTION: Port Edward LNG (PELNG) retained the Bercha Group Limited (BG)  to provide a quantitative risk analysis (QRA), HAZID, and site safety assessment services in support of the safe development of the PELNG facility and the permit application to the BC Oil and Gas Commission (BCOGC). The QRA report and the Site Safety Optimization report were submitted and accepted by the client in September 2020 and submitted to the BCOGC for their review. In 2021, BCOGC provided a list of further requirements which were dealt with by BG to the client’s satisfaction. Subsequently, the BCOGC provided a permit to PELNG to proceed to the next phase, detailed engineering, of the LNG project development.

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P203.1

Port Edward LNG HAZID, QRA, and Site Safety Optimization

CLIENT: Port Edward LNG      DATE: 2020

DESCRIPTION: Port Edward LNG (PELNG) retained the Bercha Group Limited (BG) to provide quantitative risk analysis (QRA), HAZID, and site safety assessment services in support of the safe development of the PELNG facility and the permit application to the BC Oil and Gas Commission (BCOGC). The QRA report details the methodology used, the definition of hazard scenarios including conduct of a HAZID assessment, the frequency and consequence evaluation for the principal credible hazards defined, and the resultant risk and ways of mitigating it. The site safety assessment used the QRA results to provide recommendations on optimizing the safety of workers at the facility and public in the vicinity, including BC hydro workers at an adjacent facility, recreational individuals in the vicinity on land and on the sound waters, and occupants of vehicles on the nearby Yellowhead Highway. The proposed project was at the pre-front end engineering and design (pre-FEED) stage of its potential development, and the HAZID, QRA, and Site Safety Optimization Study were used as part of the PELNG application to the BC Oil and Gas commission. 

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P202.1 \ P1908

Bow River Flood and Drought Mitigation Project

CLIENT: Confidential      DATE: 2019-2021

DESCRIPTION: The continuation of P1908. In January 2020, it appeared the currently preferred option is to build a new dam roughly 2.5 km downstream of the existing one and to demolish the existing dam built in 1929. A Conceptual Assessment (CA) on three options was commissioned to, and undertaken by Wood Environment & Infrastructure Solutions in November of 2018, and made available after considerable delays to Bercha in September 2020. Work in 2020 to date has included review of the CA resulting in identification of deficiencies including the neglect of any consideration to the option of upgrading the existing dam and increasing the reservoir capacity by a combination of dredging, increasing the dam height, and installing a lower level outlet, all potentially increasing the reservoir capacity by approximately 40,000dam³.

P201.1

Heritage Valley Town Centre QRA

CLIENT: The CIty of Edmonton      DATE: 2020

DESCRIPTION: The City of Edmonton (COE), is planning to develop a multipurpose development, the Heritage Valley Town Centre (the Development) currently characterized by a Neighbourhood Area Structure Plan (NASP) shown below in Figure 1. As required by the City, a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is required to assure acceptable locations of different land uses relative to risk sources. The principal risk sources are an ATCO high pressure natural gas pipeline and a Pembina crude oil pipeline, passing diagonally NE to SW through the subject location. The work was done in accordance with the requirements of the COE regarding individual specific risk (ISR) based setbacks of development in the vicinity of hazardous operations, generally as conducted by Bercha in the recent NASP 14 Health Centre Risk Analysis and other previous COE risk projects for Individual Specific Risk (ISR) setback evaluation.  Click on map thumbnail to view.

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P1908 \ P202.1

Bow River Flood and Drought Mitigation Project

CLIENT: Confidential      DATE: 2019

DESCRIPTION: The work to end of 2019 has consisted of assisting landowners (the Residents) in their dealings with and understanding of the Bow River flood and drought mitigation studies, with focus on the Ghost Dam relocation project apparently under serious consideration. The Residents’ premises are east of the Ghost Dam, on the north side of the Bow River. One of the currently preferred options is to build a new dam roughly 2.5 km downstream of the existing one, and to demolish the existing dam built in 1926. A preliminary review of available information was conducted in 2019. A Conceptual Assessment on three options was commissioned to, and undertaken by Wood Environment & Infrastructure Solutions in November of 2018. Bercha will review this and advise on risk and impact aspects of current and potential options in 2020.

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P1907

PhD Thesis External Examiner Services

CLIENT: University of Stavanger      DATE: 2019-2020

DESCRIPTION: External examiner for a PhD thesis” including detailed review and critique of the thesis, attendance at the thesis defence, and final recommendations. A review of the thesis was carried out, with consideration of the following main areas:
     • Relevance to theme and objectives of the Thesis
     • Quality of work
     • Originality of work
     • Use of or reference to previous work
     • Value of contribution to state of art

P1906

Motor Vehicle Accident Investigation

CLIENT: Confidential      DATE: 2019

DESCRIPTION:  Bercha in association with the Highway Institute of Canada, conducted an assessment of the architecture, as well as vehicular and pedestrian transportation provisions relevant to the accident.

P1905

ISO 35102 Arctic Offshore EER Petroleum and Natural Gas Industries – Arctic operations offshore installation escape, evacuation and rescue - Country Committee Comments DIS Edit (Related to P1801)

CLIENT: International Standardization Organization, ISO DC/67 Technical Committee -London, UK      DATE: 2019

DESCRIPTION: Review and assimilation of Country Committee comments for the Final DIS ISO 35102 of Sections 9, A.9, and B.1 setting out the requirements and recommended procedures for on EER Risk Analysis including a detailed illustration, in Section B.1, of the procedures as exemplified in its Probabilistic EER Simulator, a comprehensive risk analysis model for offshore EER for any specific location, operation, and operator, as well as final drafting of selected areas in various sections as required by the organizing committee.

     In mid-2019, the working group completed its final draft, and it was submitted to the ISO country committee. Bercha was largely responsible for the sections on risk analysis of EER, with a detailed description of a recommended procedure in Annex B. The final approval 1906 voting is was completed on December 16, 2019, and the final standard is due to be published in early 2020. Click on cover thumbnail to view enlargement.

P1904

Building Safety Architecture - Textbook preparation

CLIENT: Bercha Group      DATE: 2020

DESCRIPTION: Dr Bercha's second book, Building Safety Architecture, was completed in early 2020.

The book is intended to assist architects, engineers, and contractors to better understand, design, and construct buildings and other structures to protect occupants from natural and manmade threats to building safety. Subjects covered include:  a review of historical and current provisions, an examination of human behaviour in life threatening conditions, details of contemporary building emergency design provisions, documentation of current codes and design practices, and presentation of quantitative methods for evaluating the risk and reliability of different combinations of emergencies, building designs, and occupant characteristics. The subject matter is relatively unique because it is based on a meld of architectural and structural design and reliability engineering experience of the author acquired through five decades of practice.

P1903

CN Milton Logistics Intermodal Hub (related to P1805)

CLIENT: Halton Municipalities      DATE: 2019

DESCRIPTION: Canadian National Railways (CN) has proposed to construct and operate an intermodal (truck to rail) logistics hub in the town of Milton, generally as depicted below (image to come). The region of Halton, in which Milton is located, in 2016 retained the Bercha Group to assist with its intervention opposing the development on the basis of the generation of risks and various damages to the town and region. Bercha has and continues to provide expert risk analytic services including the review and assessment of CN submissions to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Panel, review of the original EIS, and Panel requests for additional information and CN replies thereto.

     In the period from May to July 2019, hearings on the proposed project were staged by the Canadian Environmental Assessment Panel, which were actively attended by Dr. Bercha on behalf of the Halton Municipalities. Extensive evidence on the risks and impacts of the proposed project was prepared and presented at the panel sessions in June. The recommendations of the panel are pending at and expected in early 2020.

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CN Milton Logistics Intermodal Hub

CLIENT: Halton Municipalities      DATE: 2018

DESCRIPTION: Canadian National Railways (CN) has proposed to construct and operate an intermodal (truck to rail) logistics hub in the town of Milton, generally as depicted below (image to come). The region of Halton, in which Milton is located, in 2016 retained the Bercha Group to assist with its intervention opposing the development on the basis of the generation of risks and various damages to the town and region. Bercha has and continues to provide expert risk analytic services including the review and assessment of CN submissions to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Panel, review of the original EIS, and Panel requests for additional information and CN replies thereto. Click on thumbnail to view image.

Edmonton Development Site Quantitative Risk Analysis

CLIENT: City of Edmonton, subcontract to Associated Engineering Alberta Ltd.      DATE: 2018

DESCRIPTION: The work includes the conduct of a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of a potential development site in the City of Edmonton (COE), including future sensitive uses including a major hospital and health campus, to assess risk based setbacks of development in the vicinity of hazardous facilities and operations within and near the development site. Potential risks to the site are generated from numerous oil and gas pipelines within and adjacent to the site, a proposed pipeline and a pipeline interchange facility, and a dangerous goods (DG) route on Anthony Henday Drive north of the site. Based on the COE development bylaw 12800 individual risk intensity (IRI) transects were developed for each of the five hazardous corridors affecting the site, mitigation measures including sheltering effects from different hazards (flash and jet fires) and applied, and transformed to plan views of risk contours spatially positioned on the potential development plan for two principal annual risk levels, 1 in 1 million, high density residential, and 3 in 10 million, for sensitive facilities such as hospitals. The project is currently ongoing.

QRA of Development Adjacent to Natural Gas Pipeline and CN Railway Line

CLIENT: Westbrook Developments Limited      DATE: 2018

DESCRIPTION: Westbrook retained the Bercha Group to conduct a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) in accordance with the requirements of the City of Regina (COR) regarding risk based setbacks of development in the vicinity of a proposed SaskEnergy natural gas pipeline and a CN Railway Branch Line between Regina and Moose Jaw at the southern extremity of the proposed development, to ensure that the development complies with the risk based setback criteria set by the City of Regina. Following risk mitigation measure assessment to reduce risks, cumulative risk contours indicating the low and high density residential development setbacks were established and used as a guide for the development plan.

P1801

ISO 35102 Arctic Offshore EER Petroleum and Natural Gas Industries – Arctic operations offshore installation escape, evacuation and rescue - Country Committee Comments DIS Edit

CLIENT: International Standardization Organization, ISO DC/67 Technical Committee -London, UK      DATE: 2015-2016, 2018

DESCRIPTION: Review and assimilation of Country Committee comments for the Final DIS ISO 35102 of Sections 9, A.9, and B.1 setting out the requirements and recommended procedures for on EER Risk Analysis including a detailed illustration, in Section B.1, of the procedures as exemplified in its Probabilistic EER Simulator, a comprehensive risk analysis model for offshore EER for any specific location, operation, and operator, as well as final drafting of selected areas in various sections as required by the organizing committee.

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Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Safety Assessment of Maui Condominium

CLIENT: Specific units in condominium, Maui, Hawaii, USA     DATE: 2017

DESCRIPTION: The work entailed collection of indoor air samples, lab analysis for impurities, and risk assessment, and recommendations for remediation. Hawaii Inspection Group (HIG) provided a sub- atmospheric pressure collection canister to Bercha to collect sample air from separate areas suspected of impure air. Sample canisters were then returned to HIG and shipped to a NIOSH-approved lab for analysis using USEPA: Compendium Method TO-15, “Determination of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in Air" and analyzed by Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (GC/MS). Results were assessed for occupant safety both chronic and acute, and recommendations for relief of chronic effects were made. Recommendations included increase in air changes (depending on unit air volumes) and air purifier installation. The project continues to be monitored.

P1703

Milton CN Intermodal Hub Risk Analysis

CLIENT: Halton Region, Planning and Development      DATE: 2017

DESCRIPTION: The CN Town of Milton Logistics Hub Development EIS and associated appendices were reviewed to assess the adequacy of information to form a basis of a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of public safety during the construction and operation of the proposed facility. The information provided in the documents reviewed was found to be inadequate for input into a QRA. The principal risk sources from operations are the release of Dangerous Goods (DG) and traffic accidents from the increase of DG truck traffic in the area, DG releases can occur as a result of a malfunction or accident involving train derailment, collision, DG transfer to trucks, truck accident, and other release events. Risk from the construction is likely to be restricted to machinery operations and truck traffic. Qualitative and detailed quantitative information on all aspects of the operation related to DG’s is being generated to conduct the public safety QRA, which has been initiated.

P1702

ISO 35102 Arctic Offshore EER Petroleum and Natural Gas Industries – Arctic operations offshore installation escape, evacuation and rescue - Detailed CED Edit

CLIENT: International Standardization Organization, ISO DC/67 Technical Committee - London     DATE: 2017

DESCRIPTION: Detailed editing of Sections 9, A.9, and B.1 setting out the requirements and recommended procedures for on EER Risk Analysis including a detailed illustration of the procedures as exemplified in its Probabilistic EER Simulator a comprehensive risk analysis model for offshore EER, in the DIS and country Committee reviewed draft.

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P1605

Updates to Fault Tree for Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators - Liberty Development Project Oil Spill Risk Analysis Subsea Pipeline

CLIENT: BSEE/BOEM     DATE: 2015-2016

DESCRIPTION: Project objectives include: assimilation of North Sea and U.S. OCS oil spill statistics, and evaluate their applicability; develop the fault trees for estimating oil spill occurrences from the proposed Project associated with spills of different size categories; use the fault tree approach in a Monte Carlo simulation, develop alternative oil spill indicators and assess their variability, including effect of variability of both the historical data and the future development scenario parameters; and evaluate the variability of alternative oil spill indicators for a similar development scenario in a non-Arctic location. Following the general risk analysis in P1508, the subsea double walled (pipe in pipe) oil production pipeline was analyzed for oil spill risk. As this had not been done before (anywhere) further development of fault tree application to this analysis was carried out, resulting in both a single point variable and distribution (using Monte Carlo) of spill risk, integrated into the integrated project spill risk evaluation.

           Click on thumbnails to view enlarged images.

P1604

ISO 35102 Arctic Offshore EER Petroleum and Natural Gas Industries – Arctic operations offshore installation escape, evacuation and rescue - Initial Draft

CLIENT: International Standardization Organization, London, UK     DATE: 2016

DESCRIPTION: The escape, evacuation and rescue (EER) system promotes the successful escape from the incident, subsequent emergency or precautionary evacuation from the installation and the ultimate rescue of installation personnel. The EER provisions should be used as part of a continuous improvement process for managing risks and the safety of personnel working offshore in Arctic and cold regions. Bercha is responsible for the preliminary CD drafting and editing of Sections 9, A.9, and B.1 setting out the requirements and recommended procedures for on EER Risk Analysis including a detailed illustration of the procedures as exemplified in its Probabilistic EER Simulator a comprehensive risk analysis model for offshore EER.

P1603

Regina Risk Based Setbacks

CLIENT: City of Regina     DATE: 2015-2016

DESCRIPTION: The City of Regina (City) engaged Bercha to conduct an investigation of existing documents used in determining land use requirements in the vicinity of hazardous facilities such as gas pipelines, dangerous goods (DG) routes, and chemical and oil and gas plants. This work objective is to enhance the City’s understanding of methods for doing risk and hazard assessments and setting risk based setbacks for development in the vicinity of hazardous installations.
     Over 200 risk based threshold documents used worldwide were assembled and reviewed and of these 90 documents setting out such thresholds were selected for in depth study. Of the 90, 37 apply generally to all hazard sources. More specific threshold documents for different hazard sources compiled included 36 for oil and gas pipelines and facilities, 8 for railways, 10 for dangerous goods (DG) routes, and 8 for airports. From a review of the 27 most location-relevant documents, it was evident that the most rigorous approach to thresholds is to have a set of risk based criteria which applies to all risk sources, rather than having ones dedicated to each of the specific applications. A consistent threshold target for all applications (ie, railways, pipelines, facilities), whether individual or collective risk or both, was deemed favourable. A summary of specific conclusions follows:

1.      Consider the use of general thresholds applicable to all applications but only with performance based standards rather than prescriptive standards.

2.      Consider the 27 most location-relevant items identified as a basis for options for the City to consider for risk based setbacks. There is a trade-off between the documentable rigorous realism and ease of use of the threshold.

3.      Consider the comparison of individual risk intensity (IRI (MIACC)) and individual specific risk (ISR (actual risk)) thresholds which showed considerably higher ISR potential for the MIACC criteria for certain land uses such as outdoor workers which would be subjected to unacceptably high risk under the MIACC IRI criteria.

P1602

Risk Analysis for Urban Setbacks from Oil and Gas Pipelines in Proposed Subdivision

CLIENT: Harvard Developments, Regina     DATE: 2015-2016

DESCRIPTION: Risk based setbacks using both the MIACC and exposure factored individual risk guidelines were evaluated for two natural gas and one oil pipeline within the proposed development location.

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P1508

Liberty (Mod 0005) – Updates to Fault Tree for Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators

CLIENT: BSEE/BOEM     DATE: 2015-2016

DESCRIPTION: Project objectives include: assimilation of North Sea and U.S. OCS oil spill statistics, and evaluate their applicability; develop the fault trees for estimating oil spill occurrences from the proposed Project associated with spills of different size categories; use the fault tree approach in a Monte Carlo simulation, develop alternative oil spill indicators and assess their variability, including effect of variability of both the historical data and the future development scenario parameters; and evaluate the variability of alternative oil spill indicators for a similar development scenario in a non-Arctic location. This work will be carried out within the context of the Liberty development and production plan (DPP).

P1507

Integration of Emergency Human Survival Provisions in Residential and Commercial Building Design

CLIENT: AIR     DATE: 2015-2016

DESCRIPTION: Publication of building safety textbook. Research and data collection on indoor air quality hazards.

P1506

Orlan EER System Risk Analysis

CLIENT: EXXON MOBIL Development Corp (EMDC)     DATE: 2015-2016

DESCRIPTION: Following Bercha review of planned Orlan-type EER study locations (identified by EMDC), approaches, and parameters, feedback and guidance on input values and approach was provided to EMDC. Following assimilation of operational and environmental conditions for 3 potential locations of the Orlan platform, current and potential configurations of the EER system were assembled. Each of the 3 cases for several different accident scenarios including blowouts, fires, ice, and extreme sea-state were risk analyzed for EER system reliability.

    Specific services included pre-study consultation, including determination of 6 sets of 6 Orlan environmental conditions (open water calm, open water Beaufort 8, moderate ice calm, moderate ice stormy, heavy ice static, heavy ice dynamic), and an annual average for 3 locations, and conduct of full EER reliability modeling of 7 accident scenarios using the Bercha PEERS software Version 10.1, including software documentation and EER escape, evacuation (4 EER systems), and rescue (3 rescue modes) and integrated EER reliability result generation.

P1503

Risk of Alternative TMPL Route Options in W Edmonton

CLIENT: City of Edmonton      DATE: 2015

DESCRIPTION: Investigation of TransMountain Pipeline risks to Edmonton locations. As part of the investigation, risk contours were developed using Cumulative Risk Analysis (CRA) methodology.

P1502

ISO 35102 Arctic Offshore Operations EER

CLIENT: ISO    DATE: 2015-2016

DESCRIPTION: Development and drafting of ISO 35102 Arctic operations escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER).

P1501

High Arctic EER Study

CLIENT: ExxonMobil Development Company     DATE: 2015-2016

DESCRIPTION: ExxonMobil Development Company (EMDC) is carrying out an evaluation of feasibility and effectiveness of Evacuation, Escape and Rescue (EER) systems in the high Arctic to provide recommendations on areas that require further improvement. Bercha conducted a quantitative study using Event Tree analysis to calculate the probability of successful evacuation under various conditions. A new version of Bercha’s Probabilistic Escape Evacuation and Rescue Simulator (PEERS) software, which includes fault and event trees, was developed and used.

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P1410

High Arctic EER Study

CLIENT: ExxonMobil Development Company     DATE: 2014-2015

DESCRIPTION: ExxonMobil Development Company (EMDC) was carrying out an evaluation of feasibility and effectiveness of Evacuation, Escape and Rescue (EER) systems in the high Arctic to provide recommendations on areas that require further improvement. Bercha conducted a quantitative study using Event Tree analysis to calculate the probability of successful evacuation under various conditions. Bercha’s Probabilistic Escape Evacuation and Rescue Simulator (PEERS) software, which includes fault and event trees, shall be redeveloped.

P1409

TransMountain Pipeline Spill Risks

CLIENT: Gowlings LLP     DATE: 2014

DESCRIPTION: Review of proposed TransMountain pipeline spill risks and countermeasures.

P1408

ICETECH 2016 – International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice

                conference feasibility

CLIENT: n/a   DATE: 2015-2016

DESCRIPTION: No conference was held in 2016. The ICETECH conferences focus on the general  theme of performance of ships and structures in ice, covering a wide range of specialty topics including icebreaking ships, ice resistant structures, and operations in ice. Technical papers are presented by experts from around the world. A small commercial exhibition for industry and related organizations is always well attended. The most recent ICETECH conference to date was held in 2014, with the sub-theme: looking to the future in a warming world. For more details refer to the website: www.icetech16.org.

Foxtail Grove Subdivision QRA

CLIENT: Stantec-Dundee     DATE: 2014

DESCRIPTION: An earlier QRA (P1305) of the proposed Foxtail Grove development and adjoining potentially developable lands was carried out. A further risk assessment associated with future rail and highway bypass locations adjacent to the area was attempted, but appropriate DG data were not available for either the road or railway.

Addendum to Analysis of Risks to Proposed Harbour Landing West Development from Existing Oil and Gas Pipelines

CLIENT: Stantec Consulting Ltd     DATE: 2014

DESCRIPTION: Stantec retained Bercha Group Limited (Bercha) to conduct a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of certain oil and gas pipelines to assess the risks they pose to the proposed Harbour Landing West development in 2012, resulting in a comprehensive final report based on the QRA issued in May 2013. There are two east west pipeline corridors passing through the proposed development. Corridor 1 is the southern one, containing six TransCanada Pipelines (TCPL) lines, and Corridor 2 is the northern one, with two TransGas (TG) lines. Recently, TCPL has issued notice of the energy east pipeline project involving the conversion of one of the TCPL lines, Line 4, from natural gas to crude oil, and Bercha has been asked to re-assess the risks with this future pipeline conversion in place. An Addendum report was prepared, giving details of this risk re-assessment.

P1405

Development of ISO 18819 Arctic Operations - Escape, Evacuation and Rescue from Offshore Installations

CLIENT: International Association of Oil and Gas Producers     DATE: 2014-2017

DESCRIPTION: Assistance with coordinating input from WG2 “task group” leaders or other WG2 members and prepare drafts of the standard (CD, DIS, FDIS) and to the extent possible, use ISO format. The goal is to develop a new international standard “Petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries. Arctic operations. Escape, evacuation and rescue” using expertise from countries with interests and experience from work in arctic conditions, including the following Arctic specific aspects:

·        EER in cold climate: health aspects of EER in extreme arctic conditions;

·        Human performance in life-threatening conditions-effect of perceptual narrowing and cognitive dysfunction on EER reliability, training specific aspects

·        Winterization issues to improve EER conditions in cold climate including,

o       Mechanical provisions for motor performance, lubricant changes, gas volumes for inflation

o       Enhancement for human performance including slip free and deicing of surfaces, clothing, thermal protection,

o       Integration of design aspects for mechanical (equipment) and human process reliability;

·        Analysis of applicability of the evacuation methods in extreme arctic conditions and optimal systems for both open water and ice conditions;

·        Emergency response vessels specifications for the Arctic.

o       Combination standby and rescue and/or evacuation vessels

o       Dedicated vessels off platform and launching from platform optimization

Updates to Fault Tree Methodology and Technology for Risk Analysis Chukchi Sea Sale 193 Leased Area

CLIENT: United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management     DATE: 2014

DESCRIPTION: Oil spill occurrence estimates were generated for the future hypothetical oil and gas development scenario, the Anchor A and Satellite A-2 (the Project), in the Chukchi Sea Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Sale 193 Leased Area. Because sufficient historical data on offshore oil spills for this region do not exist, an oil spill occurrence model based on fault tree methodology was developed and applied. Using the fault trees, base data from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific OCS including the variability of the data, were modified and augmented to represent expected Arctic offshore oil spillage frequencies.

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P1401

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P1306

Westerra Subdivision QRA

CLIENT: Harvard Developments     DATE: 2013

DESCRIPTION: Quantitative Risk Analysis including risks to potential development occupants from adjacent gas storage caverns and an industrial waste processing plant. The QRA is carried out under Regina planning protocol, utilizing the Regina interpretation of MIACC guidelines as land use planning thresholds.

P1305

Foxtail Grove Subdivision QRA

CLIENT: Stantec-Dundee     DATE: 2013

DESCRIPTION: QRA of the proposed Foxtail Grove development and adjoining potentially developable lands. An earlier QRA covered part of the Foxtail Grove development in 2009; an update of that QRA is carried out, as well as further risk assessment associated with future rail and highway bypass locations adjacent to the area. The QRA is carried out under Regina planning protocol, utilizing the Regina interpretation of MIACC guidelines as land use planning thresholds.

P1304

Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue (EER) Assessments for the Amauligak Development

CLIENT: ConocoPhillips Canada     DATE: 2013

DESCRIPTION: Work involves the development of a conceptual assessment of the reliability of various EER systems for various options for the proposed Amauligak development. The work includes general EER system description and conceptual evaluation, quantitative EER options evaluation using probabilistic model, and the conduct of a HAZ-EER and workshop sessions. Principal evacuation systems evaluated include ice resistant TEMPSC, ARKTOS, and gangways to and from ice breaking SBVs.

P1303

ATCO Urban Pipeline Relocation Risk Issues

CLIENT: Carscallen LLP     DATE: 2013

DESCRIPTION: Technical advice to legal firm representing intervenors regarding the proposed relocation of urban natural gas pipelines in Transportation Utility Corridors in Calgary and Edmonton. The advice was based on risk related assessments carried out by the proponent, and included suggestions on improving the scope and coverage of such risk analyses.

P1302

Historical Pipeline and Tanker Failure Frequency and Consequence Study

CLIENT: ConocoPhillips Canada     DATE: 2013

DESCRIPTION: The purpose of the work was to provide a quantitative historical comparison and trending of accidents involving applicable types of pipelines and tankers with an indication of the frequencies and consequences of accidents resulting in oil spills. Accordingly, the work consisted of the assimilation of worldwide statistics on buried, above grade, and subsea pipelines and crude oil tanker spills, with as much detail as available to provide information on spill causes and spill consequences. It is important to emphasize that the objectives did not include the consideration of specific Arctic or other project-specific effects on the oil spill statistics; rather, the work was restricted to the use of historical data largely from non-Arctic regions, except for above grade pipelines, although a section describing methodology applicable to Arctic projects was included.

P1301

ICETECH 2014 – International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice

Looking to the Future in a Warming World

CLIENT: n/a   DATE: July 28-31, 2014

DESCRIPTION: ICETECH 2014, the 11^th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice was held July 28-31, 2014 in Banff, Alberta Canada. Frank Bercha and Merv Edgecombe co-chair the 2014 Organizing Committee. Again, the focus was on the general theme of performance of ships and structures in ice - but with emphasis and special sessions on looking to the future in a warming world. There were 7 plenary and 50 technical presentations – covering a wide range of specialty topics within our theme of performance in ice, with emphasis on icebreaking ships, ice resistant structures, and operations in ice. These were presented during the conference by authors from around the globe. ICETECH hosted a small commercial exhibition for organizations in the industry. An all inclusive meal and social program for all delegates as well as tours and activities for accompanying persons was offered. See www.icetech16.org for more.

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P1208

Analysis of Risks to Proposed Harbour Landing West Development from Existing Oil and Gas Pipelines

CLIENT: Stantec Consulting Ltd     DATE: 2013

DESCRIPTION: Stantec retained Bercha to conduct a quantitative risk analysis of oil and gas pipelines to assess the risks to the proposed Harbour Landing West development, including the two east-west pipeline corridors. Corridor 1 is the southern one, containing six TransCanada Pipelines (TCPL) lines, and Corridor 2 is the northern one, with two TransGas (TG) lines. The City of Regina requires a risk assessment report on possible risks from hydrocarbon pipelines to any proposed subdivision in support of the permitting process.

P1207

Gas Release Evaluation

CLIENT: EnCana     DATE: 2013

DESCRIPTION: The modeling of the characteristics of a gas release from the subsea pipeline and on-land pipeline rupture. The work included the use of the proprietary blowdown and dispersion models to evaluate flammable gas cloud characteristics for selected release scenarios.

P1206

Loss of Well Control Occurrence and Size Estimators for the Alaska OCS

CLIENT: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management  (BOEM), United States Department of the Interior    DATE: 2012-2014

DESCRIPTION: A multiyear study of historical data and statistics on offshore losses of well control including blowouts, to provide quantitative input to future Arctic offshore well control accident probability and characteristic predictions. The objectives of this study were to:  (1) Update offshore loss of well control frequency information through 2012 for the US, Canadian and Australian offshore regions, the North Sea, and other areas with a comparable regulatory regime, including acquisition and analysis of the SINTEF blowout data base. Exposure variable information was also collated.  (2) Apply statistical procedures to develop loss of well control occurrence rates for different operational phases and product spilled - eg, gas, crude and condensate, drilling mud, as well as an outrider (small sample) analysis applicable to major events such as the Macondo blowout.  (3) Estimate issues of occurrence rates, size estimator(s) and confidence intervals related to this study and study results. Results and methodologies will be reviewed by a third party scientific panel of appropriate experts; submission of the study findings to peer reviewed publications is encouraged. The study was initiated in 2012, and completed in 2014.

P1205

Analysis of Sour Water Pipeline Release

CLIENT: Osler et al LLP     DATE: 2012

DESCRIPTION:  Review and analysis of facts and evidence relating to a sour water pipeline release in 2010.

P1204

Northern Gateway Project NEB Hearing Support

CLIENT: Northern Gateway Pipelines    DATE: 2012-2013

DESCRIPTION: Provision of technical services related to risk assessment and provision of expert testimony at National Energy Board (NEB) hearings on the permissibility of the proposed Northern Gateway Project, which consists of pipelines between Alberta and Kitimat, a transhipment terminal in Kitimat, and marine transportation of incoming condensate and outgoing crude oil to and from foreign locations. Risk analysis evidence was generated by the Bercha Group on various aspects of the project, including public safety of the pipelines, pump stations, terminal, and aspects of the marine transportation system, over several years during the project preparation phase. Dr Bercha was the expert witness in the pipeline operations panel at NEB hearings, supporting the evidence his company had generated, as well as other evidence filed through responses to Information Requests (IRs). In addition, technical support including quantification of potential release volumes associated with any location along the proposed pipelines was provided to support other studies, including spill trajectory modeling, and environmental impact assessments.

P1203

E&B Oil Development Project Quantitative Risk Analysis

CLIENT: E&B Natural Resources Management Corporation     DATE: 2012

DESCRIPTION: E&B Natural Resources Management Corporation (E&B) is proposing the development of the E&B Oil Development Project (the Project) on a site within the City of Hermosa Beach. The Project provides for the development of an onshore drilling and production facility that would utilize directional drilling techniques to access crude oil and natural gas reserves in the tide lands granted by the State of California to the City, and in an onshore area known as the “uplands”. The Project is divided into four phases as follows: Phase 1:  Site Preparation, Phase 2:  Drilling and Testing, Phase 3:  Final Design and Construction, and Phase 4:  Development and Operations. Only Phases 2 and 4 are dealt with in this report, because these are the only phases which include hydrocarbon drilling and production operations.

     To support the design and regulatory process, E&B has commissioned Bercha to carry out a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) to assess public safety and environmental risks resulting from the Project. The public QRA considers only acute risks to people from accidental hydrocarbon releases; it does not cover chronic health risks. The environmental QRA only considers acute environmental risks from oil spills offsite.

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P1108

P1105

P1104

P1103

P1101 

Alternative Oil Spill occurrence Estimators for the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas - Fault Tree Method
CLIENT: U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation, and Enforcement (BOEM)   DATE: 2011
DESCRIPTION: The BOEM Alaska Offshore Continental Shelf (OCS) Region needs estimates of oil spill occurrences for the development of environmental impact statements for possible future offshore developments resulting from the sale of leases for the US Beaufort Sea Outer Continental Shelf. Since 2000, a series of studies carried out by Bercha were directed at the development of a realistic method of predicting oil spill occurrences, including source, size distribution, location, and timing for potential future development scenarios associated with offshore OCS lease sales.

Due to the embryonic state of offshore oil development in this region, it was not possible to base these oil spill probability estimates on empirical data from that region. Rather, statistically significant non-Arctic empirical data from the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and world-wide sources, together with their variance, were used as a starting point. Next, both the historical non-Arctic frequency distributions and spill causal distributions were modified to reflect specific effects of the Arctic setting, and the resultant fault tree model was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation to adequately characterize uncertainties treated as probability distribution inputs to the fault tree. A series of studies, associated with successive lease sale scenarios between 2000 and 2006, was carried out directed at developing and applying the fault tree methodology. In addition, a study directed solely at updating the GOM data was carried out. The series of studies consisted of five Beaufort and/or Chukchi application studies and the GOM data update studies. This report summarizes the methodology and gives results of its application to the prediction of oil spill probabilities and their characteristics for the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas region based on the most recent studies using the most recent statistics.

P1100

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NORTHERN GATEWAY KITIMAT TERMINAL QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
CLIENT: Northern Gateway Pipelines Inc  DATE: 2011
DESCRIPTION: Northern Gateway Pipelines Inc. (NGPL) is designing and preparing regulatory applications for its proposed Northern Gateway Project (NGP), which consists of an oil pipeline, a condensate pipeline, and the Kitimat Terminal (the Terminal). To support the Terminal design and regulatory process, NGPL has commissioned Bercha Group Limited (Bercha) to carry out a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) to assess personnel safety at the Terminal and public safety in its vicinity. The QRA considers only acute risks to people; it does not cover chronic health risks or environmental risks.

P1009

P1007

P1005

P1003

P1001

EDMONTON CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT AND LAND USE PLANNING PROJECT
CLIENT: City of Edmonton   DATE: 2010
DESCRIPTION: The purpose of this cumulative risk assessment (CRA) and Land Use Planning Project was to provide a characterization, analysis, and quantification of the risks to the community from multiple risk sources in the study areas. Results formed recommendations for improved land use management, municipal land use policies and regulations, will provide improved assurance for industry, and promote ensured public safety. Accordingly, the emphasis in the work was on the technical risk analysis execution in a form and context amenable to application to the development of land use management, policies, and regulations to enhance compliance by industry and ensure public safety.

Generally, the scope of work in Phase 1 covered areas that were relatively highly developed in the City of Edmonton, in terms of industrial facilities and adjacent public, residential, and commercial uses. The risk analysis of these existing areas constituted the focus of Phase 1. Phase 2 concentrated on a developing area, the Horsehills Study Area. Here, the focus shifted from the analysis of existing facilities to the application of the knowledge gained from Phase 1 (and elsewhere) to planned and potentially developing facilities for the Horsehills area.

See also P1009 for current work relating to this project.

A facility in the study area	Dr. Bercha presents	Meetings throughout the project

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P2911

P2910

P2909

P2908

P2906

P2905

P2903

P2902

P2901

JOINT INDUSTRY PROJECT: ESCAPE, EVACUATION, AND RESCUE
CLIENT: Joint Industry Project    DATE: 2009
DESCRIPTION: Although there are numerous arctic offshore drilling and production operations, and numerous in the planning stage, no comprehensive quantitative feasibility and reliability evaluation of operational and developing escape, evacuation, and rescue Arctic and open water (EER) systems has been conducted.

     This work in the JIP has been structured to allow participation by different numbers of partners. Thus there is a common portion of the work, with generic results for all relevant EER technologies, and a partner-specific component which will allow each partner to designate a specific development scenario and location, to which two alternate EER designs, reliability analyses, sensitivities to accident scenarios, and technology gap analyses and conceptual gap rectifications will be carried out.

     As part of this project, an EER strategy workshop held in July of 2009 in conjunction with ConocoPhillips. The EER Strategy Workshop generated two general types of results, as follows:

     (1) Conceptual results regarding the EER systems and combinations considered, captured in the notes to the minutes and in the worksheets. These conceptual results represent the opinions of experts, not necessarily in agreement among themselves, but have been recorded regardless of consensus or dissention.

     (2) Numerical ranking results, giving some indication of the compliance with individual EER system criteria and average relative rankings among the systems considered.

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P2816

P2815

See P1403 for most recent

P2814

MUSQUASH AREA QRA

CLIENT: Brunswick Pipeline     DATE:  2008

P2813

DEMAND MODEL

CLIENT: ATCO     DATE:  2008

P2812

DEPOSITION

CLIENT: Confidential Client     DATE:  2008

P2811

QUANTITATIVE MAJOR RISK ANALYSIS OF AN OIL PIPELINE MARINE TERMINAL

CLIENT: Confidential Client     DATE:  2008

P2810

LEAHEY QRA

CLIENT: DM Leahey & Associates Limited     DATE:  2008

P2809

MOLIKPAQ HAZEER

CLIENT: Sakhalin Energy Investment Corporation (SEIC)     DATE:  2008

P2808

BATTERY QRA

CLIENT: DM Leahey & Associates Limited     DATE:  2008

P2807

CLUBROOT

CLIENT: Enbridge    DATE: 2008

P2806

PROPOSED ATCO VALVE INSTALLATION QRA

CLIENT: ATCO Pipelines     DATE: 2008

P2805

ICETECH 2008 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION WRAP UP
CLIENT: n/a    DATE: July 20-23, 2008 (see also P2615)
DESCRIPTION: Dr. Bercha chaired the Organizing Committee for ICETECH 2008. The conference positively exceeded expectations with over 175 delegates attending, full sponsor and exhibitor subscription, over 50 technical papers presented, and an exciting social and accompanying persons program. The technical program, the events, the setting, and the attendees made it a very enjoyable and technically sound event! The technical program each day began with two plenary papers, including: the changing Arctic; evolution of offshore safety regulations and practices; naval architecture developments for the Arctic; escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER); and current major offshore Arctic projects and developments. Workshops on EER and Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) rounded out the technical program. ICETECH 2008 Post-Conference Proceedings are available in CD format; see www.icetech16.org for ordering information.

P2804

SHELL HOIST INTERCONNECT PIPELINE QRA

CLIENT:  Shell Canada Products    DATE: 2008

P2803

ALBERTA CLIPPER

CLIENT: Enbridge     DATE: 2008

DESCRIPTION: Provision of support risk services during the design and construction stages of a major crude oil pipeline from the Edmonton area to a location in southern Manitoba, south of St. Leon, where it crosses into the United States. Support services have included probabilistic analysis of various bid components and bids for construction of the various portions of the pipeline, general risk services, and detailed analysis of bids for each of the main segments, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation in order to provide probabilistic distributions of the likely outcomes in economic terms of these bids. The methodology utilized was a risk factor approach in which weighing factors were attributed to all significant factors associated with the likely economic performance of each bidder, to provide a risked cumulative distribution function of the probable capital cost distribution.

P2802

HARDISTY MERCHANT TANKS COST TO COMPLETION RISK

CLIENT: Enbridge     DATE: 2008

DESCRIPTION: In this study Bercha assessed risks to capital costs for a large industrial project. Cost distributions were calculated using selected risk factors, as well as the entire array of risk factors. The analysis was conducted on the basis of historical performance since the inception of the system, considering various economic factors, to provide a probable capital cost distribution using Monte Carlo simulation. Pertinent conclusions were generated and recommendations offered.

P2801

JOINT INDUSTRY PROJECT FEASIBILITY OF ARCTIC INSTALLATION EER

CLIENT:  ConocoPhillips (Canada) and StatoilHydro (Norway)     DATE:  2008-2010

DESCRIPTION:  The project consists of the analysis of existing EER systems for Arctic applications, their evaluation, and ranking according to reliability and overall feasibility, and the design and reliability analysis of new EER systems for locations selected by each of the partners. The site-specific analysis consists of the development of two alternative EER system configuration and its reliability analysis using the Bercha Probabilistic Escape, Evacuation, and Rescue Simulator (PEERS) to assess the absolute and relative reliability under a range of site-specific environmental and installation-specific operational and accident conditions.

2007

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P2713

TURNER VALLEY RESERVOIR CONTAMINATION RISK ANALYSIS

CLIENT: Town of Turner Valley     DATE:  2007-2008

DESCRIPTION:  The Town of Tuner Valley proposed to utilize the raw water storage reservoir to supply the Town’s potable water treatment plant, which provides the municipal water supply to the town residents. The plans for the conversion of this reservoir to provide potable water distribution had been developed and included a variety of provisions to assure that the water supply remained pure. Subsequently, interveners had expressed concern regarding the possible inadequacies of the proposed measures to maintain water purity, should such measures prove inadequate. In order to clarify the risk that may be posed by the reservoir conversion, Bercha was retained by the Town of Turner Valley to carry out a quantitative risk analysis (QRA), to provide perspective on the possible risk factors and their impact on reservoir and water distribution contamination.

P2712

QRA OF PROPOSED SAINT JOHN RIVER ALTERNATIVE CROSSING

CLIENT: Brunswick Pipeline     DATE: 2007

DESCRIPTION: At the time the study was conducted, the Brunswick Pipeline was proposed to extend from the Canaport LNG Facility at Mispec Point in St. John, New Brunswick, to the international border near St. Stephen, New Brunswick, where it would interconnect to facilities owned and operated by Maritimes and Northeast Pipelines. The preferred route for the pipeline crosses the Saint John River, between a location close to Spar Cove, to a southwest bank location at the Millford area. The preferred crossing method was a horizontal directional drill (HDD), which was analyzed in the QRA of the entire proposed pipeline, and publicly reviewed and generally approved at NEB hearings in Saint John in November 2006. Because there existed a possibility that the HDD may not be feasible or successful due to geotechnical conditions, an alternative crossing method – involving an open cut system – was considered. The open cut crossing was the subject of the P2712.

P2711

RISK ANALYSIS OF PROPOSED GAS DISTRIBUTION FACILITY

CLIENT:  Heritage Gas     DATE:  2007

DESCRIPTION: Heritage Gas proposed to locate a gas distribution centre in the vicinity of the Macdonald Bridge Halifax approaches. The Bridge Commission was concerned with possible damage from a failure at the distribution centre that could affect the structural integrity of the MacDonald Bridge and approaches. Heritage Gas requested Bercha to carry out a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of the proposed facility at the proposed location, as well as the incoming pipeline in order to assess risk levels to the bridge and adjacent members of the public. Bercha provided results of the investigation carried out, as well as pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

P2710

NEW BRUNSWICK PIPELINE EPZ DESIGNATION

CLIENT: New Brunswick Pipeline     DATE: 2007-2008

DESCRIPTION:  An Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) is an area in the vicinity of a hazardous installation, for which an Emergency Response Plan (ERP) is developed and implemented. The development of the plan requires the designation of an EPZ.  In this study, Bercha considered and made recommendations for an appropriate EPZ designation, for which an Emergency Response Plan (ERP) will be developed and implemented.

P2709

PROPOSED NORTH EAST REGINA RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT RISK ANALYSIS

CLIENT: Stantec  DATE: 2007

DESCRIPTION: Bercha carried out a QRA to assess risks to residents in a proposed subdivision in north east Regina from an adjacent pipeline array and railway. The Bercha study followed the risk analysis steps and presented risk results as annual individual risks to resident.

P2708

MAJOR HYDROCARBON LIQUIDS PIPELINE AND TERMINAL SYSTEM

CLIENT:  Confidential Client     DATE:  2007

P2707

ARKTOS EER SYSTEM

CLIENT: Transportation Development Centre (TDC) of Transport Canada     DATE: 2007

Linked projects: P2707, P2701, P2601, P2501, P2401, P2301, P2201, P2101, and P2001

DESCRIPTION:  The Final Report to project P2701, entitled “Escape, Evacuation, and Risk Research Project:  Phase III”, summarized the work conducted in the subject area from January 2000 to February 2006, and was published under TP14600E in March 2006. In 2007, additional information and data were obtained on the ARKTOS evacuation system, referred to in Sections 2.2.4 and 2.5 of the Phase III Final Report. Because these data, obtained through both direct experiment and from the manufacturer and various third party sources, provides a better representation of the ARKTOS system and its capability, an Addendum Report was generated under this project P2707. It specifically updated Sections 2.2.4 and 2.5 of the Phase III final report, and provided additional information on the ARKTOS system.

P2706

REVIEW OF HALIFAX HARBOR CROSSING QRA AND LAND USE EFFECTS STUDY

CLIENT: Heritage Gas     Date: 2007

DESCRIPTION: A review of current geotechnical findings confirmed that the existing QRA remained adequate and did not require changes. Additionally, Bercha addressed the question:  "What type of restriction will the pipeline place on future land development directly above or in the vicinity of the pipeline?". The Bercha study concluded the following:  The presence of a pressurized natural gas pipeline requires diligent use of space in its vicinity. The proposed line is well protected and has a high level of integrity by virtue of its deep location and high quality design, construction, and operation. Nevertheless, a zone delineating a 15 m vertical and 10 m horizontal separation from the is considered to be its vicinity. Within this location, although land use is practically unrestricted, certain guidelines to assure adequate protection to and from the pipeline have been recommended. With these guidelines, resultant risks are very low, and low enough to be considered insignificant.

P2705

PIPE TESTS

CLIENT: Confidential Client    DATE: 2007

DESCRIPTION:  Bercha provided advice and analysis of the statistical significance of a pipe testing program, including a future test configuration to provide adequate statistical significance on the integrity of pipemill produced line pipe.

P2704

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators

CLIENT: United States Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Alaska

DATE: Ongoing continuation of P2407 – contracted to Year 2010

DESCRIPTION: Oil spill occurrence estimates were generated for several expected future oil and gas development scenarios (including exploration, production, and abandonment) in the Alaska Offshore Continental Shelf (OCS) lease sale regions. Because sufficient historical data on offshore oil spills for these regions do not exist, an oil spill occurrence model based on fault tree methodology was developed and applied. Using the fault trees, base data from the Gulf of Mexico including the variability of the data, were modified and augmented to represent expected Arctic offshore oil spillage frequencies. Three principal spill occurrence indicators, as follows, were quantified:

§         Spill frequency

§         Spill frequency per barrel produced

§         Spill index, the product of spill size and spill frequency

These indicators were quantified for the following spill sizes:

Quantification was carried out for each future year for principal development scenarios, with a range of development parameters, in duration up to 40 years. In addition, a comparative scenario for non-Arctic locations was formulated and analyzed for oil spill occurrence. Generally, it was found that the non-Arctic spill indicators were likely to be significantly higher than those for similar scenarios in the Arctic. The computations were carried out using a Monte Carlo process to permit the inclusion of estimated uncertainties in the base and scenario data and Arctic effects. A wide range of details for each scenario was generated, including the following:

§         Expected time history of spill occurrences over the scenario life.

§         Spill occurrence variations by spill volumes in the above spill size ranges.

§         Spill occurrence variation by spill cause such as boat anchoring or ice gouging.

§         Spill occurrence contribution from each main facility type, including pipelines, platforms, and wells.

§         Comparison of spill occurrence predictions between Arctic and non-Arctic scenarios.

§         Life of field averages of spill occurrence estimators.

§         The variability in the results due to uncertainties in the inputs was expressed as cumulative distribution functions and statistical measures.

In the final report, a detailed description of the methodology, results, and conclusions and recommendations will be given, as well as a section on limitations of the study.

P2703

HOPEWELL QRA
CLIENT: DM Leahey & Associates Limited  DATE: 2007
DESCRIPTION: Quantitative risk analysis to assure safety of residential development in the vicinity of a low H₂S sour gas pipeline, production wells, and battery in the Greater Edmonton area.

P2702

RISK ANALYSIS OF TEST HOLE ARCO#34 OPERATIONS

CLIENT: Petro-Canada      DATE: 2007
DESCRIPTION: A quantitative risk analysis of the location and abandonment operations for an existing test hole in close proximity to the Petro-Canada steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operation in the Athabasca Tar Sands. Because of numerous unknowns and uncertainties associated with the current condition of the existing, but undocumented test hole, it was necessary to establish risks based on current knowledge, and to refine these risk estimates as additional information became available from probes in the vicinity of the test hole. The purpose of the risk analysis was to assure operational personnel safety and SAGD project integrity maintenance.

Schematic illustration of SAGD Underground Test Facility (Source: Pilot Testing of Post-Steam Bitumen Recovery from Mature SAGD Wells in Canada, 1998)

P2701

ESCAPE, EVACUATION, AND RESCUE (EER) R&D - PHASE III-B
CLIENT: Transportation Development Centre, Transport Canada     DATE: 2004-2006

Linked projects:  P2707, P2701, P2601, P2501, P2401, P2301, P2201, P2101, and P2001
DESCRIPTION: As part of EER Phase III, Bercha carried out focused R&D leading to the development of performance-based standards and guidelines for the offshore industry. Project P2701 is the continuation of and completion of the work started under project numbers P2601 and P2501.  Please refer to P2501 for more detailed information. Further work has been conducted under P2707.

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P2615

P2614

P2611

DEEP PANUKE OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE RISK ANALYSIS

CLIENT: EnCana    DATE: 2006

DESCRIPTION: The work entailed a quantitative risk analysis of the onshore NPS20 high pressure natural gas pipeline, as well as consequence analyses for sub-sea facilities, including the sour gas injection pipelines, offshore production flowline, and NPS20 export line. The detailed quantitative risk assessment of the onshore facilities was presented to the National Energy Board in support of EnCana’s application for development and expert testimony was provided at the NEB hearings (March 2006) in support of the application.

Figure 1: As shown, the landfall area is characterized by sparsely treed terrain of medium gradient	Figure 2: The inland area is interspersed with gravel roads left over from the mining operations that were conducted in the Goldboro area some decades ago.

P2609.1

P2609.2

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF SOUTHWEST EDMONTON PIPELINE CORRIDOR
CLIENT: ATCO Pipelines    DATE: 2006
DESCRIPTION: ATCO Pipelines (ATCO) retained Bercha Engineering Limited (Bercha) to conduct a quantitative risk analysis of the risks from the ATCO pipeline in southwest Edmonton to surrounding populated locations. The proximity of the pipelines to existing and proposed high density locations, as well as to parallel crude oil Pembina pipeline, motivated ATCO to carry out this risk analysis.

A quantitative risk analysis was carried out to evaluate individual risk levels associated with the ATCO pipeline. A quantitative risk analysis includes the following principal steps:

• Data assimilation,

• Hazard definition,

• Frequency analysis,

• Consequence analysis,

• Risk assessment, and

• Conclusions and recommendations on risk mitigation.

Specifically, the risk results include the evaluation of individual risk at the pipeline location, together with its variation over the subject location, and a detailed analysis of mitigation measures.

NEW BRUNSWICK PIPELINE QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
CLIENT: Emera    DATE: 2006
DESCRIPTION: In the project P2509, Bercha conducted a quantitative risk analysis of the preferred route for the Emera Pipeline (earlier proposed by M&NP). This risk assessment was subjected to detailed scrutiny by various interveners, including Friends of Rockwood Park, as well the City of Saint John First Responders including the fire department and other emergency responders. Under the current project, Bercha provided liaison activities with the First Responders, including numerous meetings, a series of short reports providing explanations and clarifications, and other informal communications. In preparation for the National Energy Board (NEB) hearings held in November 2006, in Saint John, Bercha provided responses to numerous government, intervener, and Board information requests (IR’s), and assisted Emera in the preparation of their NEB hearing evidence. Finally, Bercha experts participated on a hearing panel during the NEB hearing for five days, and subsequently followed up with two undertakings. The work was particularly challenging due to the high level of concern regarding public safety associated with the proposed route passing partially through the City of Saint John.

The proposed pipeline route was of concern to local residents, as described on page B3 of the New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal (November 15, 2006).

ANALYSIS OF RISKS TO PROPOSED COCHRANE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FROM ADJACENT HYDROCARBON PIPELINES
CLIENT: Timko Developments Limited    DATE: 2006
DESCRIPTION: Timko Developments Limited (Timko) retained Bercha Engineering Limited (Bercha) to conduct a quantitative risk analysis of the risks from hydrocarbon pipelines to Timko’s proposed development on Lot 2, Block 1, Plan 9411880 located in south west Cochrane. The proximity of the pipelines to the proposed high density residential complex has motivated Timko to carry out this risk analysis.

A quantitative risk analysis was carried out to evaluate individual risk levels associated with the proposed development from the adjoining pipelines. A quantitative risk analysis includes the following principal steps:

• Data assimilation,

• Hazard definition,

• Frequency analysis,

• Consequence analysis,

• Risk assessment, and

• Conclusions and recommendations on risk mitigation.

Specifically, the risk results include the evaluation of individual risk at the proposed development location from each of the pipelines individually, in pairs, and the combined risk from all four pipelines, together with its variation over the subject location.

P2606

ESCAPE, EVACUATION, AND RESCUE (EER) R&D - PHASE III-B
CLIENT: Transportation Development Centre, Transport Canada    DATE: 2006

Linked projects:  P2707, P2701, P2601, P2501, P2401, P2301, P2201, P2101, and P2001
DESCRIPTION: As part of EER Phase III, Bercha carried out focused R&D leading to the development of performance-based standards and guidelines for the offshore industry. Project P2601 is the continuation of and completion of the work started under project number P2501.  Please refer to P2501 for more information.

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QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED BRUNSWICK NATURAL GAS PIPELINE

CLIENT: Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline on subcontract to Jacques Whitford Limited   DATE: February 2006
DESCRIPTION: Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline (M&NP) retained Bercha International Inc. (Bercha) to perform a quantitative risk analysis of the proposed natural gas transmission pipeline linking the Canaport^TM Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal in Saint John, New Brunswick to the US border exit point. The proposed pipeline is called the Brunswick Pipeline, and would be owned and operated by Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline. The goal of the work was to evaluate the risks associated with operating the proposed pipeline, and, if required, to identify any appropriate mitigative measures to minimize the risks to acceptable levels. The work supports M&NP’s development application that was to be submitted before the National Energy Board (NEB), as well as to provide risk management information in support of M&NP risk management programs.

Figure 1:  Existing M&NP Saint John Lateral posting including operator toll free number	Figure 2:  West of the City of Saint John; the proposed corridor would pass through rural surroundings

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED SHELL SIBBALD DEVELOPMENT

CLIENT: Shell Canada Limited    DATE: 2006

DESCRIPTION: Shell Canada Limited proposed to drill a sour gas well, and – if the well is successful in terms of production – to construct and operate a gathering line for a distance of approximately 4 km north of the well location. Accordingly, Shell Canada Limited (Shell) retained Bercha Engineering Limited (Bercha) to perform a quantitative risk analysis of the proposed Shell Sibbald Development (SSD). The work was intended to support Shell’s energy development application to be submitted to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB), as well as to provide risk management information in support of Shell risk management programs.

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators and their Variability for the Chukchi Sea – Fault Tree Method

CLIENT: United States Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service    DATE: ongoing (2006)

DESCRIPTION: Oil spill occurrence estimates were generated for several expected future oil and gas development scenarios (including exploration, production, and abandonment) in the Chukchi Sea Offshore Continental Shelf (OCS) lease sale regions. Because sufficient historical data on offshore oil spills for these regions do not exist, an oil spill occurrence model based on fault tree methodology was developed and applied. Using the fault trees, base data from the Gulf of Mexico including the variability of the data, were modified and augmented to represent expected Arctic offshore oil spillage frequencies. Three principal spill occurrence indicators, as follows, were quantified:

§         Spill frequency

§         Spill frequency per barrel produced

§         Spill index, the product of spill size and spill frequency

These indicators were quantified for the following spill sizes:

Quantification was carried out for each future year for one principal Chukchi Sea development scenario, with a range of development parameters, in duration up to 39 years. In addition, a comparative scenario for non-Arctic locations was formulated and analyzed for oil spill occurrence. Generally, it was found that the non-Arctic spill indicators were likely to be significantly higher than those for similar scenarios in the Arctic. The computations were carried out using a Monte Carlo process to permit the inclusion of estimated uncertainties in the base and scenario data and Arctic effects. A wide range of details for each scenario was generated, including the following:

§         Expected time history of spill occurrences over the scenario life.

§         Spill occurrence variations by spill volumes in the above spill size ranges.

§         Spill occurrence variation by spill cause such as boat anchoring or ice gouging.

§         Spill occurrence contribution from each main facility type, including pipelines, platforms, and wells.

§         Comparison of spill occurrence predictions between Arctic and non-Arctic scenarios.

§         Life of field averages of spill occurrence estimators.

§         The variability in the results due to uncertainties in the inputs was expressed as cumulative distribution functions and statistical measures.

In the final report, a detailed description of the methodology, results, and conclusions and recommendations was given, as well as a section on limitations of the study.

P2505

ANALYSIS OF RISKS TO PROPOSED LAND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH WEST REGINA FROM EXISTING NATURAL GAS PIPELINES
CLIENT: Stantec Consulting, Ltd.    DATE: 2005

DESCRIPTION: Stantec Consulting Ltd. (Stantec) retained Bercha Engineering Limited (Bercha) to conduct a quantitative risk analysis of the natural gas pipeline network relative to the proposed land development. The City of Regina required a risk assessment report on possible risks from the pipelines to the proposed development in support of the permitting process.

P2504

RED DEER PIPELINE SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION
CLIENT: ATCO Pipelines Limited   DATE: 2005

DESCRIPTION: Bercha assisted ATCO in the development and application of a system for ranking the rehabilitation priority of its pipelines. The work included a helicopter and walkabout inspection of the Southern Extension pipeline and meetings with ATCO personnel to discuss possible risk-based approaches to the rehabilitation ranking.

P2503

FAULT TREE ANALYSIS OF ALBERTA SOUR GAS FACILITIES

CLIENT: Alberta Energy and Utilities Board    DATE: March 2006

DESCRIPTION: The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (AEUB) required a comprehensive frequency analysis of operating sour gas facilities throughout the province. By sour gas facilities under this project, are meant all sour gas well drilling, production well, pipeline, and other facility operations. Other facilities include those not covered by the three specified types of operations and included, but are not restricted to, items such as above grade metering, pig trap, valve, compressor station, and gas plant facilities. These latter facilities are referred to herein as “Other Facilities”.

HIGH CONSEQUENCE AREAS IDENTIFICATION AND RANKING
CLIENT: Confidential Client    DATE: 2005

DESCRIPTION: In risk assessment two principal aspects are addressed - the probability of occurrence and the magnitude of adverse  consequences of an undesired event such as an oil spill. Regardless of probability of occurrence, if the consequences are high, such as multiple fatalities, the location where this can happen is termed a High Consequence Area (HCA). The client has undertaken to identify all such areas along its pipeline in order to undertake mitigation of these high consequences through appropriate mitigation methods. In this study, the following principal areas are addressed:

     - A working definition of HCAs is developed

     - A methodology for identification of the HCAs is defined

     - An identification of HCAs for the pipeline is conducted

P2501

ESCAPE, EVACUATION, AND RESCUE (EER) R&D - PHASE III-B
CLIENT: Transportation Development Centre, Transport Canada     DATE: 2004-2006

Linked projects:  P2707, P2701, P2601, P2501, P2401, P2301, P2201, P2101, and P2001
DESCRIPTION: As part of EER Phase III, Bercha will carry out focused R&D leading to the development of performance-based standards and guidelines for the offshore industry.
     The goal of the program is to develop a prioritized and focused R&D program specific to EER, which will lead to the implementation of performance standards for the offshore industry. The Canadian Petroleum Boards have indicated that they will administer the Standards and implement them as Board Guidelines under the Accord Act. The Boards support the continuation of the EER research program and in parallel, the Boards, in co-operation with industry, have initiated a process to review the draft standard by the regulator. The results of this work will provide the rationale for the Regulators to evaluate design standards for EER systems employed in the offshore industry. The performance-based guidelines will address all relevant Human Factors/Ergonomic considerations with respect to the usability of the systems, training and other associated elements.
    Current work which is underway or has been carried out to support the R&D program under P2501, Phase III-B,  includes the following:

• Further development of the EER simulator, the risk and performance tool (RPT). The risk and performance tool (RPT) was developed for the assessment of reliability and performance characteristics of different escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) components and their integrated performance as an EER system for different offshore installations and operating conditions. The Risk and Performance Tool (RPT), uses an optimal combination of risk analysis and simulation. Essentially, the RPT simultaneously models the evolution of risks and times of performance for each of the activities, operations, and components, comprising an EER process under given operational, environmental, and accident conditions. This document gives a detailed description of the methodology utilized in the development of the RPT including the basis for input data, algorithms, and results. Several typical offshore EER configurations for different conditions are analyzed and representative results are presented.

•  Intermediate drafting of integrated ice and open water Canadian offshore petroleum installations escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) performance-based standards.

• Details of the research carried out throughout the EER Research Project since Year 2000 by Bercha were reported in a series of 29 technical reports. These research results have been integrated into the current version of the RPT, and may generally be summarized as the earlier results with enhancements and refinements carried out under Phases I and II, and the Phase III results. The earlier results have now been extended to cover ice and cold regions performance, and although the basic research was carried out under Phases I and II, they have also been incorporated in the Integrated Ice and Open Water RPT. The principal areas of these early results generally fall under human and mechanical performance.

EER R&D projects Phases I, II, and III-B are described under project numbers: P2001, P2101, P2201, P2301, and P2401. Photos below are from all Phases of the project. Click on thumbnails to view enlarged images.

2004

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SAKHALIN 2 OFFSHORE SAFETY PLAN

CLIENT: SHELL INTERNATIONAL E&P PROJECTS

DATE: 2004
DESCRIPTION: The reliability of Escape Evacuation and Rescue from offshore facilities is dependent on the time and spatial location, availability, and capability of appropriate EER personnel, procedures, and equipment in the context of environmental, operational, and accident credible configurations associated with a given project. For the offshore component of the Sakhalin Phase 2 LNG project producing almost 2,000 MMscf per day, a key variable that can be controlled is the location and availability of standby vessels in the vicinity of the offshore production and the terminal tanker loading facilities. Using the Bercha Probabilistic EER Software (PEERS) various configurations of safety systems and procedures were simulated for credible accident and environmental conditions including ice conditions to define an envelope of optimal EER configurations giving high reliabilities. 

P2410

P2409

P2408

P2407

ALTERNATIVE OIL SPILL OCCURRENCE ESTIMATORS FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA - FAULT TREE METHOD - Extension to Include Variability of Non-Arctic Effects
CLIENT: U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region      DATE: 2005
DESCRIPTION: Progress Report #1 was issued March 7, 2005, providing preliminary comprehensive and possibly final results for oil spill occurrence indicator (OSOI) from Monte Carlo calculations for Sale 1 and Sale 2. The method used was a combination of the proposed approaches #1 and #2, essentially utilizing high level distributions from historical data under approach #1, and refining them using approach #2 by adjusting the confidence intervals for causal distribution components, as required for expected conditions. Spill volume distributions within each spill size category were also used.

Figure 1: Winter sea ice on the Beaufort Sea (image courtesy of NOAA: www.photolib.noaa.gov)	Figure 2: Sunset on the Beaufort (image courtesy of NOAA: www.photolib.noaa.gov)

ESCAPE, EVACUATION, AND RESCUE (EER) R&D - PHASE III-A
CLIENT: Transportation Development Centre, Transport Canada     DATE: 2004-2005

Linked projects:  P2707, P2701, P2601, P2501, P2401, P2301, P2201, P2101, and P2001
DESCRIPTION: As part of EER Phase III, Bercha will carry out focused R&D leading to the development of performance-based standards and guidelines for the offshore industry.
     The goal of the program is to develop a prioritized and focused R&D program specific to EER, which will lead to the implementation of performance standards for the offshore industry. The Canadian Petroleum Boards have indicated that they will administer the Standards and implement them as Board Guidelines under the Accord Act. The Boards support the continuation of the EER research program and in parallel, the Boards, in co-operation with industry, have initiated a process to review the draft standard by the regulator. The results of this work will provide the rationale for the Regulators to evaluate design standards for EER systems employed in the offshore industry. The performance-based guidelines will address all relevant Human Factors/Ergonomic considerations with respect to the usability of the systems, training and other associated elements.
    Current work which is underway or has been carried out to support the R&D program under Phase III-A  includes the following:

• Full-scale single point lifeboat evacuation tests utilizing the Galaxy II semi-submersible. The tests were carried out with the full cooperation of Global Santa Fe and participation of the Galaxy II crew in launches and recoveries of lifeboats in a location in Halifax Harbour.
• Reliability analysis of the proposed Seascape system. The work has consisted of participation in the Seascape launch trials, review of data and reports, and analysis of the reliability of this system, and incorporation into the risk and performance tool, a computer simulator of EER. 
• Expansion of the EER simulator, the RPT, to incorporate various evacuation systems, as well as specific systems including Seascape and ARKTOS. 
• Expansion of the RPT to cover EER in ice covered waters for sub-Arctic and Arctic conditions.

EER R&D projects Phases I, II, and III-B are described under project numbers: P2001, P2101, P2201, P2301, and P2501.

2003

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P2314

P2313

RISK RISK RE-ASSESSMENT OF SHELL MOOSE MOUNTAIN MAINLINE BETWEEN MOOSE MOUNTAIN AND WHISKEY CREEK COMPRESSOR STATIONS

CLIENT: Shell Canada Limited    DATE: 2003
DESCRIPTION: Shell Canada Limited (Shell) retained the Bercha Group (Bercha) to perform a risk re-assessment of the Moose Mountain Mainline (MMM) system, from the Moose Mountain Compressor Station (MMCS) (Figure 1) to the Whiskey Creek Compressor Station (WCCS). The goal of the work was to re-evaluate the risks associated with operating the existing pipeline to its full design capacity, beyond the present operational restrictions associated with the existing conditions that act to cap the operating H2S release volumes to values well below Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) license values. The work was used to support an EUB application for ‘review and variance’ of the supplemental conditions. A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was conducted of the Moose Mountain Mainline from MMCS to WCCS operating at full capacity. The risk assessment included consideration of the engineering and operational parameters of the proposed project within the context of the current location. The primary focus of the risk assessment was quantification of acute risks to the public. The key results of the work are estimates of individual and collective risks to the public. Both individual and collective risks were found to be sufficiently low to be considered acceptable. A typical line block valve is shown in Figure 2. Figures 3 and 4 show the pipeline right of way.

Figure 1:  View of the Moose Mountain Compressor Station	Figure 2: Typical line block valve - enclosed by chain link fence with posted warning signs	Figure 3: View of Elbow River crossing south of Highway 66	Figure 4: View of pipeline right-of-way northwest of Whiskey Creek

 ESCAPE, EVACUATION, AND RESCUE (EER) R&D PHASE 3

Linked projects:  P2707, P2701, P2601, P2501, P2401, P2301, P2201, P2101, and P2001
CLIENT: Transportation Development Centre, Transport Canada     DATE: 2003-2004
DESCRIPTION: As part of EER Phase III, Bercha will carry out focused R&D leading to the development of performance-based standards and guidelines for the offshore industry. Work carried out under Phases 1 and 2 (P2101 and P2201) is the foundation for Phase 3.
     The goal of the program is to develop a prioritized and focused R&D program specific to EER, which will lead to the implementation of performance standards for the offshore industry. The Canadian Petroleum Boards have indicated that they will administer the Standards and implement them as Board Guidelines under the Accord Act. The Boards support the continuation of the EER research program and in parallel, the Boards, in co-operation with industry, will initiate a process to review the draft standard by the regulator. The results of this work will provide the rationale for the Regulators to evaluate design standards for EER systems employed in the offshore industry. The performance-based guidelines will address all relevant Human Factors/Ergonomic considerations with respect to the usability of the systems, training and other associated elements.

2002

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ESCAPE, EVACUATION, AND RESCUE (EER) R&D PHASE 2
CLIENT: Transportation Development Centre, Transport Canada     DATE: 2002 - 2003

Linked projects:  P2707, P2701, P2601, P2501, P2401, P2301, P2201, P2101, and P2001
DESCRIPTION: Work initiated under P2101 is the foundation for this project. The project goal is to  develop performance-based standards (PBS) for escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) for Canadian East coast offshore oil and gas installations. Supporting research is an important part of the Standards development process. Bercha provides facilitation, expert personnel, and coordination of a team of offshore safety, human factors, marine operations, and medical experts. The PBS development program is carried out under the guidance of a steering committee, which includes representatives of Transport Canada, Transportation Development Centre, Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board, Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, and other experts. Bercha is responsible for the drafting and editing of the guidelines and organizing their development, stakeholder consultation, and promulgation. Supporting research projects explore human performance under extreme conditions and full-scale performance evaluation of specialized evacuation systems. Since experimental data are not available nor can be generated for performance under life threatening conditions, a compendium of all accident anecdotal data, applicable error rate and performance human factors data, and risk and reliability documentation is assembled, reviewed, and transformed into parameters applicable to the operation of the computerized EER probabilistic simulator. Specific systems targeted for evaluation are the Seascape 2000 proprietary system and the PROD or Preferred Orientation and Deployment lifeboat launch system.

2001

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PANCANADIAN DEEP PANUKE OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE PIPELINE QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
CLIENT: PanCanadian Energy Corporation, Halifax, Nova Scotia      DATE: 2001-2002
DESCRIPTION: PanCanadian Energy Corporation (PanCanadian) is currently planning the production phase of its Deep Panuke Offshore Development Project (Deep Panuke), located offshore, approximately 250 km southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. The project will produce and process natural gas offshore. The raw gas, which contains H2S, will be sweetened and processed offshore to a sales gas quality product. Market-ready gas will be delivered through a subsea and onshore natural gas pipeline to the Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline (M&NP) mainline near the SOEI gas plant in Goldboro. PanCanadian’s onshore pipeline is part of an interprovincial natural gas pipeline system, (the M&NP line into which it feeds delivers south to the United States and north to New Brunswick), and therefore falls under the jurisdiction of the National Energy Board of Canada (NEB). The QRA was directed at the principal offshore and onshore pipeline risks associated with different routing alternatives. 

Figure 1: General project location	Figure 2: Landfall area is characterized by a sparsely treed terrain of medium gradient sloping inland	Figure 3: Typical rocky beach

RISK ASSESSMENT OF PROPOSED ATCO WEED LAKE PIPELINE
CLIENT: ATCO Pipelines, Edmonton, AB      DATE: 2001
DESCRIPTION: ATCO Pipelines is proposing to construct a 16” high-pressure sweet natural gas pipeline known as the Weed Lake Pipeline (WLP). The pipeline will extend approximately 30 km from a location east of Langdon, Alberta to the proposed AES Power Plant site located near Janet, Alberta. A risk analysis has been carried out to support engineering and management decisions in relation to the proposed project. The risk analysis consisted of the following principal steps: (1) Data Assimilation, (2) Hazard Scenario Definition, (3) Frequency Analysis, (4) Consequence Analysis, and Risk Assessment. In the definition of hazard scenarios, three representative release sizes were defined, corresponding to a leak, a hole, and rupture in the pipeline. Associated gas release volumes were estimated to form a basis for the subsequent consequence modeling.

ESCAPE, EVACUATION, AND RESCUE (EER) R&D PHASE 2
Linked projects:  P2707, P2701, P2601, P2501, P2401, P2301, P2201, P2101, and P2001

CLIENT: Transportation Development Centre, Transport Canada     DATE: 2001-2003
DESCRIPTION: Under this project is the development of performance-based standards (PBS) for escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) for East coast offshore oil and gas installations together with the supporting research. In the first project, the development of the guidelines is carried out, with Bercha providing facilitation, expert personnel, and coordination of a team of offshore safety, human factors, marine operations, and medical experts. The PBS development program is carried out under the guidance of a steering committee comprising Transport Canada, Transportation Development Centre, Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board, Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, and other experts. Bercha is responsible for the drafting and editing of the guidelines and organizing their development, stakeholder consultation, and promulgation. In the second element, there are two supporting research projects, one on human performance under extreme conditions, and the second on the full-scale performance evaluation of specialized evacuation systems. Since experimental data are not available nor can be generated for performance under life threatening conditions, a compendium of all accident anecdotal data, applicable error rate and performance human factors data, and risk and reliability documentation is assembled, reviewed, and transformed into parameters applicable to the operation of the computerized EER probabilistic simulator. In the second subproject, specifically, the Seascape 2000 proprietary system and the PROD or Preferred Orientation and Deployment lifeboat launch system are evaluated.

2000

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ALTERNATIVE OIL SPILL OCCURRENCE ESTIMATORS FOR THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS
CLIENT: Minerals Management Service, United States Department of the Interior     DATE: 2000-2001 
DESCRIPTION: The project goals are to develop and apply alternative methodologies for the assessment of oil spill rates associated with exploration and production facilities and operations in deeper waters in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The prediction of the reliability (or failure) of systems without history can be approached through a variety of mathematical techniques, the most preferable and accepted being fault trees, and their possible combination with secondary methods such as Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian statistics. Bercha International Inc. identified an optimal methodology for the prediction of oil spill rates for systems such as those operational or contemplated for the deeper waters of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas in the Alaskan OCS, and is applying these together with an estimate of their statistical robustness to these systems in order to generate predictions of oil spill rates. The procedure will be applied for each of the principal facility and operation types for exploration and production operations in the study area.

  Click on the thumbnails to view enlarged images.

Figure 1: General Study Area	Figure 2: Work Flow Schematic

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P2009.01

ESCAPE, EVACUATION AND RESCUE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Linked projects:  P2707, P2701, P2601, P2501, P2401, P2301, P2201, P2101, and P2001

CLIENT: Transportation Development Centre       DATE: 2000-2001 
DESCRIPTION: A major multi-disciplinary project on the development of appropriate escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) systems for east coast bottom founded and floating installations associated with the oil and gas industry off the East Coast of Canada. The work consists of a worldwide literature search, followed by the development of a risk profile tool, an expected value and a Monte Carlo simulator, of each component of and the entire EER process and the integrated process. Consideration of equipment reliability and human factors in the face of accident effects, emergency panic conditions, and the entire spectrum of weather conditions is incorporated. Conclusions will be generated on optimal systems as well as further research priorities for both the development of appraisal methods, technologies, and a regulatory framework for EER provisions in the study area.

R2003

Geomatics

R2002

Geomatics

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ROSSDALE ATCO PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENT
CLIENT: ATCO Pipelines       DATE: 1999 
DESCRIPTION: The work consisted of a quantitative risk assessment of the proposed Rossdale natural gas pipeline from the Edmonton Ethane Extraction Plant to the Rossdale Power Generating Station. The work included quantitative scenario characterization, consequence modeling, risk assessment, risk mitigation analysis, and the generation of risk-based recommendations for six different potential pipeline routes for the high-pressure 20-inch natural gas pipeline. Included in the work was presentation and defense of results at the Alberta Energy and Utility Board hearing. 

      Risk analysis is an orderly process through which one can assess risk as well as methods of reducing the risk. The appropriate representation of risk for a pipeline is a risk transect showing variation in Individual Risk Intensity and Individual Specific Risk with the distance on either side of the pipeline, as illustrated in Figure 2.

ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AT ROAD-RAILWAY CROSSINGS
CLIENT: Code Hunter and Associates       DATE: 1999 
DESCRIPTION: The work consisted of the generation of definitive risk measures associated with a variety of road-railway level crossings including passive crossings, flashing light and bell crossings, and gated crossings. The work was based on nation wide statistics collected from the Transportation Safety Board, as well as industry confidential statistics provided by the transportation companies. Results of the work were utilized in support of a litigation associated with a major railway crossing accident. 

Figure 1: Passive crossing marker in rural setting	Figure 2: An urban crossing with flashing lights and bells	Figure 3: Crossing marker with bells, lights, and gate

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.43

PLATFORM FIREWATER SYSTEM HAZOP
CLIENT: Sable Offshore Energy Project       DATE: 1999 
DESCRIPTION: A full guide word HAZOP was facilitated by Bercha with an SOEP technical expert team for the entire Thebaud platform firewater system following a test failure of the system. The work included a detailed HAZOP of 27 nodes of the system, and resulted in significant engineering and operational recommendations. 

    Click on thumbnails to view larger size.

Figure 1: SOEP Location Map	Figure 2: Schematic of SOEP Facilities

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.2

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STRAIT OF CANSO PIPELINE CROSSING RISK ASSESSMENT
CLIENT: Sable Offshore Energy Project       DATE: 1999 
DESCRIPTION: A risk assessment associated with two principal types of crossing installations for the common trench pipelines across the Strait of Canso were investigated. The first installation involved a combination of bottom-lay, trenching, and successive layer armoring. The second alternative involved directional drilling. The risk assessment considered both risks associated with the construction and installation process as well as operational risks. Both risks directly attributable to the crossing installation and its operation and intrinsic risks (such as internal corrosion) independent of the installation method were assessed and quantified. Conclusions and recommendations were made.

  Click on images to enlarge

Figure 1: Location map showing pipeline routing.	Figure 2: Pipeline Armour - Typical Cross Section Central Zone.	Figure 3: Pipeline Armour - Typical Cross Section Shore Approaches.

R9902

Geomatics

P9901

.2

P9901

.1

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R9803

Geomatics

R9802

Geomatics

P9709

.33

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R9709

Geomatics

R9703

Geomatics

R9701

Geomatics

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ESTABLISHMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY RISK THRESHOLDS FOR LAND USE PLANNING PURPOSES
CLIENT: County of Santa Barbara, California, U.S.A.       DATE: 1996 
DESCRIPTION: Work is part of an ongoing program directed at the enhancement of safety through the incorporation of risk based guidelines in land use planning regulations.   The work included the development of an objected method for assessing societal risk in the vicinity of hazardous facilities.  The method developed was based on casualty and fatality risk spectra and included the development of a detailed procedure for implementing the guidelines.  Technical review, sample calculations, and attendance at information sessions and hearings constituted the work.    

Click on images to enlarge

R9604

Geomatics

R9602

Geomatics

R9601

Geomatics

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.2

P9513

.1

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P9426

P9408

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P9406

P9315

NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT CROSSING ICE ENGINEERING
CLIENT: Public Works Canada       DATE: 1993-1996
DESCRIPTION: A multi-year standing order for the provision of specialist ice engineering services in support of the design, construction, and operation of the Northumberland Strait Crossing. This crossing is the longest bridge in the world traversing a body of water which is ice covered for a significant portion of each year. It will be approximately 13 kilometres long, connecting the island province of Prince Edward Island to the Canadian main land. Northumberland Strait is ice covered from early January until the third week in April, although the date of last ice can vary over a period of two months. Ice is a significant design parameter of the bridge and its operation, both in terms of ice effects on the bridge and effects of the bridge on the ice climatology. Bercha was first retained as a consultant to Public Works Canada in 1986, and since that time has been evaluating all aspects of the ice-bridge interaction including ice forces on the bridge, effect of ice jams, environmental effect of changes in ice climatology, including microclimactic effects and effects on local fisheries. Under the present standing order, the work underway emphasized ice engineering aspects, particularly the effect of the bridge on ice jams and the adequacy and reliability of the ice design parameters, including pressures and global loads, used in the final bridge design.    Click on thumbnails to enlarge                 

Figure 1: View of Confederation Bridge	Figure 2: On the Confederation Bridge	Figure 3: Location Map	Figure 4: Pier-Ice Interaction
Figure 5: Field Data Acquisition - SAR Image	Figure 6: Field Data Acquisition - Ice floe motion schematic	Figure 7: Field Data Acquisition - SAR Map	Figure 9: Structural form elements
Figure 8: Bridge section profile			Figure 10: Bridge piers in ice - during construction phase

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RISK ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS FOR THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
CLIENT: Latin American Association of Oil Companies (ARPELL)       DATE: 1993 
DESCRIPTION: A three day seminar on risk analysis applications within the context of the oil and gas industry was conducted.  The seminar was given by two senior Bercha risk experts and consisted of a meld of lectures and workshops.  The presentation was accompanied by simultaneous translation for the attendees who numbered in excess of 40.  All phases of the risk analysis process from initiating risk or hazard to detailed consequence analysis were reviewed and each trainee participated in the formulation and conduct of a risk analysis project in an area of professional interest.  Certification and performance evaluation was conducted at the conclusion of the seminar. 

Seminar on Remote Sensing Project Management and Applications for Environmental Monitoring
Caracas, Venezuela                                           Date completed: November 1993
Canadian International Development Agency

DESCRIPTION:  The Bercha Group formulated curriculum, produced a manual, and conducted a technical seminar in Caracas, Venezuela as part of a Public Safety and Environmental Risk Management seminar series conducted in association with Geoexpert C.A. of Caracas. The three-day technical seminar covered a wide range of subjects, including: an introduction to remote sensing, general examples for environmental monitoring, sensor systems and airborne acquisition platforms, satellite sensors, manual interpretation, digital image processing, methods of map production from remotely sensed imagery, and applications to environmental monitoring. Although conducted in English, simultaneous translation occurred during the seminar, and seminar materials were available in both Spanish (Figure 1) and English.
The general objectives of this seminar were to provide managers, administrators, and other decision makers with a general understanding of the principals and applications of remote sensing with emphasis on environmental monitoring so that they can apply this understanding of remote sensing and its capabilities in support of management decisions. To achieve this general objective, the seminar focused on facilitating participants' understanding in the 10 key areas shown in Figure 2. An environmental monitoring example from the seminar is shown in Figure 3. 

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SIMULATION AND MODELING SERVICES FOR NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT PROJECT
CLIENT: Delcan/Stone and Webster Joint Venture     DATE: 1992-3
DESCRIPTION: Continued work on the Jamming and Break-Up modelling for the Northumberland Strait Crossing Project as part of the Ice Committee's mandate to determine the impact of any bridge on the ice regime. Subsequently examined the winning design (SCI) and sensitivities of the jamming and break-up models to winter severity. Consulted with SCI, C-Core, and independent engineer on the ice forces on the piers, providing expert advice on the ice conditions in the Strait as well as executing independent calculations of ice forces for Public Works Canada. Initial calculations were on the original 8m cylindrical design and subsequent calculations on various forms of conical design. Work involved refinement of three-dimensional conical failure mechanisms for ice sheets with rubble and ridge keels. Provided advice to Public Works Canada on the reports from C-Core to SCI and the reports by the independent engineer, Buckland and Taylor.

FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS OF REINFORCED CONCRETE STACK
CLIENT: Monenco      DATE: 1992
DESCRIPTION: TransAlta Utilities, the owner and operator of the Wabamun electrical generating plant, and the Alberta Department of the Environment, wished to create additional access holes in the two of reinforced concrete stacks in order to permit sampling of exhaust gases. Prior to the creation of the holes, they wished confirmation that the holes would not critically alter the integrity of the stacks. To do this, a non-linear finite element analysis of a portion of the concrete stack was carried out under the effects of extreme operating conditions, and the design wind pressures. Analyses were carried out both for the current arrangement of holes and with the proposed additional holes. The analysis was carried out with a special purpose non-linear finite element program which accounted for the tension-weak characteristics of concrete, the presence of reinforcing steel, and the time dependent behaviour of concrete. The results indicated that the proposed additional holes did not compromise the reliability of the stacks.

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SAREX-92 SAR Data Acquisition and Processing
European Space Agency              Date completed: January 1993

DESCRIPTION: In October of 1991, The Bercha Group with principal subcontractor Innotech Aviation Limited, was awarded ESTEC Contract No. 9643/91/NL/S2, entitled “Technical Support for the Implementation of the SAREX-92 Campaign”.
      The work under this contract entailed a preparatory and planning phase, an airborne data acquisition phase, and a post-flight phase dedicated to documentation and data processing. This work was carried out between November 1st, 1991, and October 15th, 1992.
     The planning phase involved specification of target areas, flight planning, permits and clearances, and administration for logistic provisions. SAREX-92 data acquisition involved the Convair 580 equipped with the C/X SAR instrument (Figure 1a), and flights over test sites in Venezuela, Guyana, French Guiana, Brazil, Colombia and Costa Rica (Figure 2). Mobilization took place from Ottawa on April 1st, 1992, and after a successful data acquisition program the aircraft returned to Ottawa on May 3rd, 1992. In addition to the SAREX-92 program funded by ESA, some data acquisition was undertaken for CCRS in Brazil, Costa Rica and Guyana.
      The data processing phase involved preparation of documentation, the transcription of the high density digital tapes (HDDTs) (Figure 3) to Exabyte computer compatible tape, slant to ground range and radiometric rectification, and production of image tapes and hard copy images. This phase of the program was carried out between May 1992 and October 1992.
      Figure 4 illustrates the operational configuration of the aircraft and image swath. Figure 5 shows a sample SAR image.

Figure 1a: Convair 580 equipped with the C/X SAR instrument	Figure 1b: Cockpit of Convair 580	Figure 2: Area Map Click on image to enlarge
Figure 3: The system used for SAREX was capable of recording full resolution, full swath images in 8 bit format on high density digital tape (HDDT). The HDDT console is shown here	Figure 4: Illustration of the operational configuration of the aircraft and image swath. The system has the capability to obtain imagery utilizing both X- and C-band radiation. Click on image to enlarge	Figure 5: Sample high resolution C-Band SAR image

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Risk Assessment for an Environmental Clean-Up Study of 21 Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line Sites in Canada
CLIENT: Canadian Commercial Corporation, on behalf of The United States Air Force       DATE: 1990/91 
DESCRIPTION: As part of the 1985 agreement between Canada and the United States to modernize the North American Air Defence System, the DEW Line System is being replaced by the North Warning System.  An environmental clean-up study of the 21 DEW Line Sites was commissioned in order to identify and investigate areas impacted by past waste disposal and spills and to determine and evaluate alternatives for the disposal of waste and remediation of spill areas.  A baseline risk assessment was carried out to document the magnitude of potential health and environmental risks at each of the 21 DEW Line sites and to provide a site specific quantification of risks to provide the basis for developing cleanup strategies. The baseline risk assessment methodology was based on that developed by the U.S. E.P.A. in their Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. The results of the baseline risk assessment were quantitative and qualitative characterizations of risk based on site specific exposure and toxicity assessments.  Both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were characterized for each contaminant at each site.  Non-carcinogenic hazard quotients were estimated to compare the level of site contamination to the potential hazard level.  Finally, carcinogenic risk was estimated in terms of the incremental probability of an individual developing cancer over a lifetime as a result of exposure to the site. 

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IMPACT OF PROPOSED NORTHUMBERLAND STRAIT CROSSING ON LOCAL ICE REGIME

CLIENT: Public Works Canada       DATE: 1987 - 1994
DESCRIPTION: The principal objective of the work was the determination of the frequency and severity with which ice jams would occur against the piers of the proposed Northumberland Strait Bridge Crossing and the forces exerted by ice on the bridge piers. Secondary objectives included an evaluation of ice motion within Northumberland Strait, evaluation of modifications of the ice cover characteristics in Northumberland Strait and evaluation of any possible impacts on the micro-climate and hence the potato crop of Prince Edward Island. The work involved an analysis of the properties of the ice cover in Northumberland Strait and the development and application of various algorithms to predict the occurrence of jams between piers and their duration. This was achieved through determination of the probability of a jam occurring and the probability that the resulting jam would survive the subsequent environmental clearing mechanisms. It was concluded that the proposed bridge configuration would not have a significant effect on the ice regime in the Strait but that the pier spacing had a very significant effect on these conclusions and thus was a critical element in the analysis.

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Airborne SLAR Surveillance Service - East Coast
Husky/Bow Valley East Coast Project                      Date completed: October 1984

DESCRIPTION: Bercha Group (Bercha) was contracted by Husky/Bow Valley (H/BV) to provide an ice and iceberg surveillance program in support of offshore drilling activities in the Hibernia area (Figure 1) during 1984. This was the first commercial ice and iceberg operational surveillance program in the area. The program extended from February 8 to June 30. During that period, 61 missions were successfully flown in the study area. The principal objective of the project was to determine the location of the ice edge and icebergs in the study and relay this information to H/BV in a timely and efficient manner (Figure 2).
Over 45 000 nm were flown by Bercha during the operational period and literally thousands of targets were detected. Comparison with ground truthing data has shown that some of the targets routinely detected by the Bercha team were growlers as small as 5 x 7 m. Scientifically, icebergs and other targets such as ships, buoy anchors, supply vessels and rigs were discriminated at a minimum of a 90% confidence level. From an operational point of view, the G-1 and SLAR proved their reliability and effectiveness as an operational support service. From an equipment point of view, the SLAR proved its reliability beyond any question. In the course of 61 flights, only 1 flight was cancelled due to equipment problems. SLAR more than adequately demonstrated its ability to perform on an around-the-clock basis, day or night, and under a variety of weather conditions. In several instances, the Bercha aircraft was the only airborne source of information as all other aircraft were grounded. This was due not only to the aircraft capability but also to the dedication of the aircrew and their ability to fly under marginal conditions.
      Due to the positional accuracy of the SLAR integrated with the aircraft horizontal systems, positioning of icebergs, bergy bits and growlers was available with only minimal error. Reliability of the equipment and dedication on the part of the crew reduced the SLAR downtime to a negligible amount. All-weather capability resulted in an on-call 24-hour operation. In summary, this first year of ice and iceberg surveillance was unquestionably successful. Confidence was developed in the MARS G-1 and SLAR system, the data product, and the logistics and communications network of a real-time operation. Click on images for enlarged view.

Figure 1: Map of Study Area	Figure 2: Sample Study Results

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Development of a System for Application of Remote Sensing Technology and Data to the Estimation of Arctic Marine Mammal Populations and Distribution
Freshwater Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Government of Canada   Date completed: March 1984

DESCRIPTION: This was a two-phase study directed at investigation of remote sensing equipment and techniques suited for Arctic marine mammal studies was conducted for the Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Western Office. In Phase I, current and future airborne and satellite remote sensing methods suitable for marine mammal surveys were reviewed and the capabilities of each system assessed. Manufacturers of remote sensing equipment were contacted and sensors displaying suitable resolution, operating specifications and capabilities were enumerated. Detection of marine mammals was classified into three levels; direct detection of actual mammals, indirect detection of features indicating mammal presence, and habitat identification. Each sensor capability for detection and identification of marine mammals was assessed, and the results were quantified through a sensor capability matrix. Aerial survey equipment and satellite sensor capabilities were examined for indirect and habitat detection and identification. Additionally, Phase I addressed availability of data, characteristics of platforms and ancillary hardware such as annotation systems and navigation equipment. Suitable systems were presented for further study. A map showing the study area is shown in Figure 1.
      Phase II involved development of an optimal survey system design, including definition of optimal remote sensing systems, design of tests for reliability and system capability, and definition of areas for further research and development.
      Image samples from the imaging systems considered are shown for SLAR (Figure 2), SAR (Figure 3), NOAA (Figure 4), and LANDSAT (Figure 5). Click on images for larger view

Figure 1: Map of Study Area	Figure 2: Side-Looking Real-Aperture Imaging Radar (SLAR) image – Each 25 km wide swath shown is imaged on either side of the aircraft with a ‘delay’ zone underneath the aircraft of 5-10 km either side of the flightline. In this example, ice information such as concentration, and water features such as poynyas and leads are clearly evident.	Figure 3: Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) – Provides high-quality ice data, particularly on small ice features such as ice fragments, streamers and bands. This figure illustrates an area of highly fragmented ice in the Labrador Sea, imaged by SAR, in which the data are digitally recorded, then processed onto positive film. This is a one-look system, imaging on one side of the plane only.
Figure 4: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite data source. Example of a NOAA satellite image recorded in the visible wavelength. As the visible wavebands are used, cloud and fog will be imaged as shown in the example over the darker, open water areas. The 1.1 km resolution of NOAA imagery restricts its usefulness in marine mammal investigations to general habitat data (Uses 2,400 km wide swath.).	Figure 5: LANDSAT satellite image – Illustrated is a LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MSS) image. The resolution restricts it to providing general habitat information only. (Uses a 186 km swath.)

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